Trump Tax Cuts & Healthcare: CBO Report
- A new analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the House Republican tax bill could leave nearly 11 million Americans without health insurance.
- The CBO also estimates that an additional 5.1 million people could become uninsured due to expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and new ACA regulations proposed by the...
- In total, the CBO projects that 16 million people could lose their health insurance over the next decade.
A new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis reveals that the House Republican tax bill could jeopardize health insurance for nearly 11 million americans. This drastic impact on healthcare, fueled in part by expiring ACA subsidies and new regulations, aims to offset proposed tax cuts under the primarykeyword, Trump tax cuts. The secondarykeyword, Medicaid cuts, also play a significant role, with potential coverage losses of 16 million over the coming decade. Democrats are already criticizing the bill, asserting that it will primarily benefit the wealthy. This complex issue, which could lead to the largest cuts in federal health care, is a stark reality. For more news and political insights, visit News Directory 3. Discover what’s next …
GOP Tax Bill Could Cause Millions to Lose Health Insurance
Updated June 5, 2025
A new analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the House Republican tax bill could leave nearly 11 million Americans without health insurance. These coverage losses would provide significant savings to offset President Trump’s proposed tax cuts.
The CBO also estimates that an additional 5.1 million people could become uninsured due to expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and new ACA regulations proposed by the Trump administration. these figures are separate from the official CBO score of the tax bill itself.
In total, the CBO projects that 16 million people could lose their health insurance over the next decade. This number mirrors the potential coverage losses that where projected during the 2017 republican effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
Democrats are expected to use the CBO projections to criticize Republicans, arguing that the bill takes health insurance away from low-income individuals to fund tax cuts that primarily benefit wealthy Americans. Republicans contend that the bill only affects those without jobs who are capable of working, and that vulnerable populations will not be impacted.
Frank Pallone,ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee,said the CBO score reveals the “catastrophic consequences” of the bill.
The bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years, largely due to the extension of Trump’s tax cuts and the implementation of new ones. Extending the lower tax rates alone would cost $2.2 trillion. The bill also includes over $1 trillion in cuts to federal health coverage spending.
Approximately 7.8 million people are projected to lose Medicaid coverage, with the remaining losses stemming from the ACA exchanges. This includes an estimated 1.4 million immigrants who lack or cannot prove legal status required for insurance access. The bill introduces new restrictions on health insurance for states using their own funds to cover undocumented immigrants and disqualifies certain immigrant groups previously eligible for coverage,such as refugees and asylum seekers.
these estimates suggest the bill could lead to the largest cuts to federal health care programs in history. Hospitals, already in a vulnerable position, are expected to use the CBO projections to advocate for changes in the Senate to mitigate enrollment losses.
The health care provisions of the bill primarily focus on Medicaid cuts and reforms to the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. A key component is the addition of work requirements to the Medicaid program, projected to save $344 billion—the largest savings from any health care provision in the bill. The CBO estimates that 18.5 million people would be subject to these requirements, with 5.2 million adults losing Medicaid coverage as an inevitable result.
Under the proposed requirements, individuals up to age 64 without dependents or disabilities would need to work at least 80 hours per month to maintain coverage. They would also need to document their employment twice a year or participate in community service or educational programs.
the bill does not extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year. If these subsidies are not renewed, the cost of ACA plans would increase, perhaps causing 4.2 million people to become uninsured. Measures aimed at limiting states’ ability to increase federal Medicaid funding would save $162 billion. These measures include new limits on state provider taxes and state-directed payment programs.
Additional savings of $145.7 billion are projected through limits on Medicaid enrollment flexibilities, including delaying a rule to streamline enrollment and requiring more frequent eligibility re-evaluations for expansion enrollees.
Reforms to drug middlemen are expected to save the government $640 million. These reforms would limit how pharmacy benefit managers receive money from drugmakers, impose transparency requirements, and prevent spread pricing in Medicaid.
The bill also includes an $8.9 billion increase in payments to doctors over a decade by partially basing their Medicare payment rates on medical inflation.Expanding the exemption from Medicare price negotiation to orphan drugs with multiple indications would increase spending by $4.9 billion.A provision pausing a biden-era rule requiring higher staffing levels at nursing homes is projected to save $23 billion over 10 years. The proposed changes to ACA and Medicaid could significantly impact health insurance coverage and access.