Trump vs Harris: The Presidential Showdown – What Are the Odds
Contrary to what happened a day ago, the odds on the online betting site Polymarket show that presidential candidate Donald Trump is overwhelming candidate Kamala Harris.
With more than 77.3 million votes cast early and absentee across the country, polls continue to show that the race for the White House between the two candidates is still very close. A recent national poll conducted by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris leading by 1.1% as of November 4.
In FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls in seven battleground states, Ms. Harris leads by 1% in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Mr. Trump leads by 1% in North Carolina and Georgia, and by 2% in Arizona. The two candidates tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Newsweek reported that, as of the afternoon of November 4 (local time), according to the Polymarket platform, former US President Trump had a 58% chance of winning, while Ms. Harris had a 42% chance of winning.
“Mr. Trump’s odds are increasing again. Tomorrow is election day,” Polymarket shared on social network X on November 4.
Previously, on October 30, Mr. Trump had a 67% chance of winning on Polymarket, but the odds for the Republican candidate dropped sharply in the next few days. Even the odds for Mr. Trump dropped to 53% early on the morning of November 3, just hours after a poll showed Ms. Harris winning a surprising victory in Iowa, a state that usually leans towards the party. Republican, with 3 points in support.
Odds developments on Kalshi site
According to the Independent, reports emerged in October suggesting that election odds on Polymarket may be manipulated. The platform then identified a single French citizen as the owner of four accounts, and had bet more than $50 million on Mr. Trump. Polymarket does not allow US users to bet on the election.
After receiving the green light from the US federal appeals court to provide a legal election betting platform exclusively for US citizens, Kalshi has attracted more than $100 million in bets related to the election season. nominated. This prediction market quickly climbed to number 7 on the list of top free applications downloaded on Apple’s App Store and at the end of October, even ranked first in the application category. Free finance.
On Kalshi, the betting platform that allows Americans to participate, election odds followed a similar trajectory. While Mr. Trump led Ms. Harris 64% to 36% last week, betting odds on the former US President dropped sharply afterward, and the candidates were tied within hours of the election. Iowa poll released. As of the afternoon of November 4, Mr. Trump was leading Ms. Harris with a ratio of 54% compared to 46% on the Kalshi betting platform.
In contrast, Ms. Harris received slightly higher support on PredictIt, where the Vice President was given a 54% chance of becoming the first woman to hold the US presidency.
According to a stock market-based forecasting model called “Presidential Prediction Tool”, it is likely that Ms. Harris will become America’s first black female president. This model has correctly predicted the results of 21/24 elections.
The basic principle of the Presidential Predictor is simple: when the S&P 500 index rises in the final three months before an election, the incumbent party usually remains in office. On the contrary, a decrease in this index will indicate that the opposition will win.
The S&P 500 index on the US stock market has increased steadily since August. Other indexes such as Dow Jones have also increased. Therefore, according to the Presidential Prediction Tool model, the Democratic Party will prevail and Ms. Harris will be elected.
However, many people are skeptical about the Presidential Prediction Tool. Some experts warn that the economic and political landscape has changed in ways that could complicate the tool’s accuracy.
Most experts say that the accuracy of betting market predictions should not be compared with traditional polls – which provide a comprehensive picture of voters’ choices. Because polls must be based on analytical standards and meticulous methodological frameworks. While betting is still mainly based on hunches, intuition and mainly reflects the bettor’s level of trust.