Trump’s Slipping Support Among Key Voter Groups Raises Concerns for Second Term
A new wave of polling data reveals a concerning trend for President Trump: declining approval ratings, particularly among demographic groups crucial to his 2024 victory. The data, discussed on PBS’s “NewsHour” on , points to softening support from Latino voters, young people, and independent voters, alongside surprising slippage even within his core base of white working-class voters.
The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, analyzed by Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report, places the President at his lowest standing of his second term. Walter explained that this downturn isn’t simply a broad rejection of Trump, but a fracturing of the coalition that propelled him to office. “Those were all critical to his success in 2024,” she said, referring to Latino, young, and independent voters.
Perhaps most striking is the erosion of support among white working-class voters, a demographic Trump consistently courted and won over in previous elections. Walter noted a significant decline in their approval, attributing it largely to economic anxieties. “These are the kinds of voters that, you could argue that the slippage is really driven by views on the economy, the frustration about inflation and the cost of living,” she stated. This shift is particularly worrisome as key Senate and House races will be contested in states with large populations of these voters.
Tamara Keith of National Public Radio highlighted the intensity of the disapproval, noting it has returned to levels seen immediately following the January 6th attack. “The intensity of that disapproval is essentially back where it was right after the January 6 riot,” Keith observed. While Trump maintains a strong hold on his most dedicated supporters, Keith emphasized that his initial expansion of the electorate is now unraveling.
The President, however, appears focused on solidifying his base, rather than attempting to win back lost ground. Keith recounted a conversation with Trump on Air Force One, where he declared, “My base has never been stronger. My base is me…You could call it the America first base. They couldn’t be more thrilled.” This strategy, while effective at energizing his core supporters, risks alienating the independent and expansion voters who were instrumental in his previous success.
The challenge for the White House, according to Walter, lies in balancing the need to maintain enthusiasm within the base with the necessity of addressing broader economic concerns. She pointed out that Republicans on the ballot in upcoming elections will need to demonstrate a commitment to affordability, a message that currently clashes with the President’s optimistic pronouncements about the economy. “If you’re a Republican on the ballot next year, you can’t afford that to be the message that affordability is not such a big deal,” Walter said. The hope is that tax refunds, projected to be larger this year, might offer some economic relief and shift public perception, but whether that impact will be felt by November remains uncertain.
Adding to the political headwinds, the President’s recent decision to post a racist meme targeting former President Obama and his wife, Michelle, has further alienated voters. The White House initially attempted to distance itself from the post, blaming a staffer, but Trump later admitted to sharing the meme, claiming he hadn’t seen the full video and defending it as a critique of “election denial conspiracy theory.” Keith reported that Trump stated he had “no reason to apologize” and even asserted he was “the least racist president that we have had in a long time.”
This incident underscores a recurring pattern within the Trump administration: White House attempts to manage fallout from the President’s actions are often undermined by his own subsequent statements. As Walter pointed out, the White House needs Trump to stay on message, but also needs him to remain visible to keep his base motivated. This inherent tension creates a precarious situation as the President navigates a challenging political landscape.
The current polling data suggests a significant shift in the political environment, raising questions about President Trump’s ability to maintain his grip on power as he enters the latter half of his second term. The coming months will be critical in determining whether he can regain lost ground or if these trends represent a more enduring realignment of the electorate.
