The question is simple and direct: “Will the United States purchase part of Greenland in 2026?” The implied probabilities in the distribution of responses are 21%, meaning a bet on that outcome yields nearly five times the wagered sum. Financial volumes on this dilemma total seven million dollars. And further: the next country to be struck by American bombing will be Somalia, according to 85% of bettors (reduced remuneration in case of “success”), or Syria (6%, meaning a win could more than decuplicate the sum wagered).
This is a normal day on Polymarket, one of the major American online betting platforms for binary outcomes (something happens or does not happen) that are revolutionizing the gambling world. But it is not a normal time for platforms like Polymarket. First, because they are exploding in popularity. Just last Thursday and Friday, , when it became clear Donald Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chairman, betting volumes on the banker’s name reached 385 million dollars.
Specifically, bets on Warsh began to surge from 10:30 PM (Eastern Standard Time) on Thursday, a few hours after the economist visited the White House that day. The remuneration on these platforms functions like derivatives on financial titles, where it varies based on the probabilities of a certain outcome attributed by the distribution of positions: the fewer bets concentrated on an option, the more remunerative that option becomes if it comes to pass.
There is no evidence of insider trading, though a recent case raised concerns. Hours before the American administration announced an attack on Caracas and the removal of its dictator Nicolas Maduro, someone on Polymarket wagered 32,000 dollars on that exact “outcome” (then considered highly improbable by most bettors), realizing a profit of over 400,000 dollars. It is difficult to identify the lucky bettor and whether they had ties to Trump, as many positions on Polymarket are anonymous and payments are made through untraceable stablecoins.
The world of these platforms is undergoing a revolution for another, more specific reason: the fingerprints of Donald Trump and his family are everywhere. Many of the bets concern outcomes of decisions made by the President of the United States, which only he and a few others can know in advance. Especially since Trump’s return to the White House, he and his family have become involved in all the major online betting platforms and are even creating a new one.
Last summer, Donald Trump Jr., one of his sons, became a shareholder through the venture capital fund 1789 and a “consultative” member of Polymarket. Following this, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the American regulator overseeing these betting systems, approved Polymarket’s activities.
Just months before, coinciding with his father’s swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Jr. Took another step: he became a “strategic advisor” (remunerated) to Kalshi, the direct competitor to Polymarket, the other major platform through which users bet on upcoming decisions by Trump and on other political, sporting, or meteorological outcomes.
The role of Donald Trump Jr., though presenting an obvious and multiple conflict of interest, is likely sought by the platforms precisely because of the perception that it opens doors to American regulators and guarantees favorable treatment. After all, the business is attractive and growing. To the point that President Trump himself decided to launch into the market last autumn, announcing the development of “Truth Predict,” a competitor to Polymarket and Kalshi that will operate on his social media platform, Truth. And who is in charge of that? Again, his son, Donald Jr., who is already gaining experience.
More than 200 million dollars is currently staked on political or government actions on Polymarket and Kalshi, raising concerns about insider trading. Traders on these platforms, having left traditional employment, are now making substantial incomes. Logan Sudeith, 25, for example, estimates he clocks 100 hours a week on Kalshi and Polymarket, earning 100,000 dollars last month alone. He profited from wagers on Time Magazine’s Person of the Year, the most-searched person on Google, and the New York City mayoral race.
These prediction market apps are thriving during Trump’s second term, with traders betting on migrant deportations and election outcomes. The platforms have upended the betting industry, allowing users to bet on everything from the theme of Taylor Swift’s next album to the actions of world leaders. The involvement of the Trump family, through advisory roles and the development of a competing platform, underscores the growing influence of these markets and the potential for financial gain tied to political events.
