Trump’s Peace Plan: Implications for Ukraine and European Security

Truce Plan for Ukraine

Many Western leaders emphasize that Ukraine must win the war against its aggressor. However, support has been limited, leading analysts to believe that some countries do not genuinely want Ukraine to succeed. Assistance has been enough to prevent a total loss, resulting in a prolonged and exhausting conflict.

As the U.S. presidential elections approach, the situation may change. Donald Trump has stated that his main goal is to end the war, claiming that the U.S. has the influence to do so. Speculation is growing regarding his potential offer. Analysts suggest that Trump may present an ultimatum for both sides to negotiate a ceasefire or face either the suspension of aid to Ukraine or significant increases in military support. Saying “no” to Trump would require careful consideration by both parties.

This potential scenario raises mixed emotions in Europe. First, Ukraine may have to concede and leave parts, if not all, of the territory occupied by Russia under its control. This could lead to a tense political situation within Ukraine.

Second, a ceasefire would allow Russia to recover and strengthen, creating significant security risks for Europe in the future. Consequently, many European nations continue to vow their support for Ukraine’s victory.

On November 17, news broke that U.S. President Joe Biden, who will soon leave office, authorized the use of long-range missiles for Ukraine to target military sites deeper within Russia. However, many analysts argue that Western support has consistently been too delayed since the war began. This decision from the U.S. was long-awaited and unlikely to substantially alter the front lines. In just two months, Trump will take over the office and intends to implement his policies even before the inauguration ceremony.

Unpredictability is Key

“The main challenge we face with Trump is his unpredictability,” said political analyst Elīna Vrobļevska. “We survived when he was president before, but the current security situation is different.” Vrobļevska expressed doubts that the U.S. would make drastic decisions, such as entirely withdrawing support for Ukraine to start peace talks.

“We can expect Trump to make bold statements, but it remains to be seen whether those will translate into significant policy changes,” she added.

Dmitro Levus, director of the social research center “Ukrainian Meridian,” noted that there is no major shift in mood within the Ukrainian public that signals irreversible negative changes. Despite some nervousness and fatigue, he believes Trump’s election won’t significantly impact sentiments toward the war.

Biden’s Sudden Activity Raises Questions

Analyst Jānis Slaidiņš cautiously assessed Biden’s decision to grant Ukraine long-range missile capabilities. He noted Trump’s silence regarding this significant choice was unusual.

“I do not believe in such coincidences. Trump usually comments on Biden’s actions, but he has been silent now. Why would Biden suddenly show such determination just two months before his term ends?” Slaidiņš questioned.

He speculated that during a recent meeting, Trump may have given Biden the green light to proceed with this decision.

Challenges Ahead

Experts agree that the worst-case scenario for Trump’s peace plan would be freezing the current conflict. Vrobļevska warned that this would place Ukraine in a precarious situation, waiting for Russia to mobilize its resources again.

Slaidiņš echoed these sentiments, recalling Europe’s past experiences with frozen conflicts after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. He emphasized that a frozen conflict rarely leads to positive outcomes.

He also highlighted that it is unlikely that Russia is prepared to accept peace terms without lifting sanctions or maintaining control of occupied territories.

Ukrainians Realize They Must Survive Alone

Despite significant issues, Ukrainians understand their survival depends largely on their efforts, as explained by Levus. He noted that there is no significant public desire for peace at any cost, especially under Russian terms.

“When we discuss recognizing Russian-occupied territories, it is not about starting peace. It is a condition for negotiations,” he clarified.

Current Sentiment is Not as Dire as it Seems

Recently, some social media messages have claimed Ukraine’s front line is about to collapse, citing various issues within the military. However, Levus pointed out that freedom of speech allows for diverse opinions, and some of these messages may serve as disinformation.

He emphasized that while there are real challenges, the overall situation may not be as severe as portrayed. Ukraine continues conducting military operations within Russian territory, demonstrating resilience amidst difficulties.