Trump’s Re-election: Impact on European Populism and Ultra-Right Politics
The elected president and his team celebrated the political comeback of the Republican as a victory against woke culture, liberal immigration policies, and other Biden-era policies.
European far-right parties are paying attention. Many populists in Europe hope Trump’s return—an ally who promotes conservative Christian values and shares disdain for progressive politics—will serve their interests and further normalize their anti-immigrant and nationalist rhetoric.
Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), congratulated Trump on November 6, urging him to keep fighting and win elections. Alice Weidel, co-leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD), also sent her congratulations, stating it was the hardworking American people who decided the election, not Hollywood.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, from the Fidesz party, called it a “much-needed victory for the world.” However, Armida van Rij, a senior researcher at Chatham House, cautions against viewing European far-right parties as a homogenous group, even as they share themes with Trump’s agenda such as anti-woke sentiment, traditional values, anti-green transition, and anti-immigration.
The European Green Deal faced backlash from far-right groups wanting to weaken climate legislation or disregard climate action entirely. Similarly, Trump promised to dismantle Biden’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions and phase out fossil fuels.
This sentiment is evident in the language of the far-right. In Austria, anti-immigration slogans like “Love your country, not Moroccan thieves” are common for the Freedom Party (FPÖ). In Germany, the AfD has displayed anti-Islam sentiments, showcased by their posters saying, “Burkas? We prefer bikinis.”
Such rhetoric may shock many, but a Center for European Reform analysis suggests Trump will strengthen the European far-right by normalizing and amplifying their ideas. Trump has used controversial language about immigration, calling the U.S. a “dumping ground for the world.”
A prominent far-right leader likely to benefit from Trump’s presidency is Viktor Orbán, who has expressed strong support for Trump. He reportedly toasted to Trump’s electoral victory with vodka, according to Agence France-Presse.
Orbán, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Europe, has faced ostracism from the EU due to his authoritarian policies and lax attitude toward Russia. While he angers his European peers, his relationship with Trump seems favorable, as Trump highlights Orbán’s support.
Van Rij believes that with Trump in power, Orbán may feel emboldened to ignore concerns about the rule of law, either nationally or within the EU. She argues that if Trump can do it, why should anyone care about the rule of law? Recently, a U.S. court dismissed the last federal criminal case against Trump related to mishandling classified documents and election subversion.
With Trump back in the White House, Orbán and other European populist leaders with softer stances on Russia might feel encouraged to push for an end to the war in Ukraine. In Romania, far-right populist Calin Georgescu, gaining prominence ahead of facing a center-right opposition leader in a runoff, once described Putin as a “man who loved his country.”
Trump has openly stated his desire to end the war in Ukraine quickly, claiming he could resolve the conflict in a day. He has been criticized for trying to win the favor of dictators like Putin.
Van Rij emphasizes that any peace agreement on Putin’s terms would be detrimental to Ukraine and European security. She concludes that Trump’s reelection highlights these issues.
Overall, Van Rij perceives significant ideological alignment between Trump and certain European populist parties. However, despite the excitement surrounding Trump’s reelection, key conflicts of interest may soon emerge.
She points out contradictions among populist leaders who sense they have an ally in the White House but face real implications from Trump’s policies for their countries. Economic policy is a notable example, with Trump’s pledge for “America First” trade policy threatening the EU bloc and potentially impacting populist leaders seeking power in Europe.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (RN) party, offered a more moderate response to Trump’s victory, perhaps indicating early signs of concern from a populist leader. Eurostat data shows France was the fourth largest exporter of goods from the EU to the U.S. in 2023. Van Rij notes that France could be disproportionately affected by Trump’s “America First” trade policy, complicating Le Pen’s chances for the French presidency.
Liana Fix, a researcher for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, highlights why Le Pen may worry about her path to power. Recently, French prosecutors pushed for prison time against Le Pen and a five-year ban from holding political office, which could derail her presidential ambitions for 2027.
Concerns about Orbán’s celebrations being premature also arise. His strong commercial ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping may create friction. Hungary has attracted Chinese investments, which worries some Republicans. Van Rij notes that some Republicans view China as the number one enemy, a view Trump shares. Orbán will have to navigate this contradiction, as he prefers to pursue multiple strategic alliances.
Fix adds that Orbán may struggle if he tries to charm both Trump and Xi simultaneously. While Trump’s victory boosts European populists, they stand divided among themselves. For example, Le Pen does not get along with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and there is little cohesion with AfD.
Ultimately, the diversity among European populists poses the greatest challenge to benefiting from the favorable historical moment presented by Washington. Although all populist parties focus on immigration and anti-left rhetoric, significant differences exist. For instance, economic policies may vary greatly between Trump and Le Pen, as well as foreign policy, with Meloni supporting Ukraine while Trump does not.
The closer these leaders get, the more nuanced their differences become.