Trump’s Threats to Iran Before MoU Signing: Why the Escalation?

The United States and Iran have reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, but tensions remain high as former U.S. President Donald Trump has renewed threats to strike Iran before the memorandum of understanding (MoU) is finalized, according to multiple reports.

A temporary truce with unresolved risks
Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, confirmed on June 17 that Tehran and Washington had signed a preliminary agreement in Switzerland, mediated by European diplomats. The deal includes a temporary halt to military escalation, including attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but excludes broader sanctions relief or a full diplomatic normalization. U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to CNN Indonesia, said the MoU was not yet binding and that Trump—who has publicly opposed the negotiations—has instructed his team to prepare for potential military action if Iran violates the terms.

What the ceasefire agreement includes
The preliminary accord, signed in the Swiss city of Lucerne, covers three key areas:

1. A mutual pause in direct military strikes, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-led operations in the region.
2. The release of detained American and Iranian citizens, though details on timing remain unclear.
3. A commitment to resume indirect negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, within 30 days, with France, Germany, and the UK acting as guarantors.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Bagher Ghalibaf, warned in a statement carried by IRNA that any U.S. violation of the agreement would be met with "immediate and decisive retaliation." Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been leading European mediation efforts, described the deal as a "necessary first step" but stressed it was not a final resolution to the decade-long standoff.

Trump’s threats and political implications
Trump, who has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration’s diplomatic approach to Iran, told supporters in a rally in Pennsylvania on June 16 that he would "wipe out" Iranian nuclear facilities if re-elected. "We’re going to hit them harder than they’ve ever been hit," he said, according to AFP. His national security adviser, JD Vance, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The threats come as Iran’s hardline factions, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have signaled skepticism toward the ceasefire. IRGC Commander Esmaeil Baqaei told state media that any deal with the U.S. must include the lifting of all sanctions, a demand the Biden administration has ruled out. Analysts, including those at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, note that Trump’s rhetoric could undermine the fragile agreement, potentially pushing Iran to escalate rather than de-escalate.

Why the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has been a battleground in the U.S.-Iran proxy conflict since 2019. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and the IRGC have repeatedly targeted commercial vessels linked to Israel or the U.S., while Washington has conducted airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. The ceasefire does not address these broader regional conflicts, leaving open questions about whether the pause will hold.

What happens next: The 30-day test
The MoU requires both sides to avoid new attacks for 30 days while negotiations resume in Pakistan. However, the agreement’s survival hinges on three critical factors:

1. Trump’s influence: If he wins the November election, his administration could abandon the deal entirely, as he has done with past agreements, including the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
2. Iran’s domestic politics: Hardliners in Tehran may reject any compromise perceived as weakness, particularly if they believe sanctions relief is insufficient.
3. Regional allies: Israel, which has conducted airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites in recent months, has not been included in the ceasefire talks, raising concerns that Jerusalem could derail the process.

The financial claims—and why they’re likely exaggerated
Iranian state media, including IRNA, has reported that the U.S. is considering compensating Tehran for decades of sanctions, with some outlets claiming a figure of 5.3 trillion rupiah (approximately $350 billion). However, U.S. officials have denied any such payment is part of the agreement. The Biden administration has stated that sanctions relief will only come if Iran fully complies with the nuclear deal, which it abandoned in 2018.

Comparing the sources: What outlets say—and what’s missing

• detikNews (Indonesia): Focuses on Trump’s threats as the primary risk to the ceasefire, citing unnamed U.S. officials.
• Kompas.id: Highlights the financial claims, attributing them to Iranian state media without independent verification.
• CNN Indonesia: Emphasizes the role of European mediators, quoting Macron’s cautious optimism.
• AFP: Provides Trump’s direct quote from his Pennsylvania rally, framing his stance as a direct challenge to the agreement.

Key unanswered questions

1. Will the ceasefire hold? The 30-day window is short, and past agreements between Washington and Tehran have collapsed under similar pressure.
2. What about Israel? Jerusalem has not been part of the talks, and its recent strikes on Iranian targets in Syria could trigger a regional escalation.
3. Can Trump’s threats be ignored? His influence over U.S. foreign policy remains a wild card, particularly if he returns to office.

How this compares to past U.S.-Iran deals
The current MoU resembles the 2013 interim nuclear agreement, which also included a temporary freeze on certain Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for limited sanctions relief. That deal ultimately led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Trump abandoned in 2018. The risk today is that the ceasefire follows the same trajectory—collapsing under political pressure before a broader agreement can be reached.

What readers should watch for next

• June 17–July 17: The 30-day ceasefire period, during which any violation could trigger a renewed military standoff.
• Pakistan talks: Whether indirect negotiations in Islamabad can produce a more substantive deal.
• U.S. election impact: If Trump wins in November, his administration could scrap the agreement entirely, as he has done with past diplomatic efforts.

For now, the world watches as the Strait of Hormuz remains a powder keg—and the clock ticks down on the fragile ceasefire.