Trump’s Trade War Triggers Massive Decline in Canadian Travel to US Cities

An analysis from the University of Toronto’s School of Cities indicates that Canadian visits to United States cities have declined by an average of approximately 42% year-over-year, according to cell phone data. The findings, reported by Business Insider, suggest that the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies extends beyond tourism to significantly affect business travel in high-tech and financial sectors.

Researchers Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung, and Jeff Allen utilized cell phone activity to track movements, revealing a steeper decline in visitation than official government records. While border-crossing data indicated a roughly 25% drop, the cell phone analysis showed the decline was nearly double that figure.

Impact on Commercial and Financial Hubs

The research highlighted that the decline was not limited to traditional tourist destinations. While cities such as Orlando and Las Vegas saw reductions, major commercial hubs experienced significant drops in Canadian visitors. These included New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston.

The researchers attributed these declines to a reduction in work-related trips made by employees in the finance and technology sectors. Karen Chapple noted the nature of these trips, stating:

“I fly to San Francisco all the time. It’s a tech flight to San Francisco — that’s who’s with me on the flight.”

Karen Chapple

The study further detailed the shift in travel patterns for these professional centers:

“High-tech and financial centres like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border.”

University of Toronto Researchers

Industrial and Automotive Sector Disruptions

Beyond major metropolitan centers, the analysis found surprising declines in mid-sized cities with deep industrial ties to Canada. Specifically, researchers pointed to Grand Rapids and Flint, Michigan, as areas where automotive industry relationships have been complicated by the White House’s changing tariff policy.

Grand Rapids recorded the second largest drop in visitation among the cities analyzed. The researchers linked this specific decline to the city’s close ties to the automotive industry in Ontario, noting that the drop was likely due to the tariffs.

Karen Chapple observed that the most affected areas were often not typical vacation spots, stating:

“The top 20 cities were a number of big metros that aren’t exactly known as, you know, big tourist areas.”

Karen Chapple

Broad Economic Strain

The data underscores a broader strain on the relationship between Canada and the United States. The study analyzed 267 different cities, and the results showed a near-universal decline in Canadian visitation. Only three of the 267 cities saw an increase in Canadian visits compared to the previous year.

This downturn follows a prolonged recovery period from the COVID-19 pandemic, which took approximately three years for Canadian visitation levels to largely recover. The researchers noted that it remains too early to determine the duration of the current dip in travel.

The findings suggest that the disruptive approach to foreign policy and the resulting trade war have created a climate of economic uncertainty that discourages both leisure and professional travel across the border.