Trump’s Venezuela: Oil, Politics, and Economic Crisis

by Victoria Sterling -Business Editor January 18, 2026

written by Victoria Sterling -Business Editor January 18, 2026

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STANFORD⁤ – US President Donald Trump‘s ongoing efforts to control Venezuela’s⁣ oil rest on the ‌assumption that the United States can successfully ‍”run” a country twice the size of iraq. Rather than⁢ projecting strength abroad, however, this ‌military overreach reveals ⁤the growing vulnerability of a president whose once-firm grip on American politics is steadily weakening.

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⁤ ‌ $Artwork titled 'Trump' by Greenlandic artist Kristian 'Keto' Christi The removal⁤ of Maduro presents Venezuela with a precarious future, mirroring the destabilizing experiences of other resource-rich nations like⁤ Iraq, Libya, and afghanistan. Vast oil reserves offer no guarantee against a similar fate, and⁢ the country faces a range of challenging ‌scenarios. Venezuela’s fractured opposition may attempt a power-sharing agreement or new ‌elections. Though, a‌ civilian government led by⁤ María ⁤Corina Machado is unlikely to be sustainable. Consequently, the Trump administration might pursue ⁢a negotiated settlement with key figures within the ⁤Chavismo coalition, preserving the⁣ existing power structure. Such a settlement would likely maintain the armed forces, security‍ services, and civilian militias, with senior military⁢ officers remaining influential in sectors like ⁣construction, food distribution, and petroleum -‍ rewarded for upholding the status quo.‍ Alternatively, Maduro’s removal could create a risky power vacuum, leading to political and military fragmentation and escalating territorial disputes between competing armed groups and criminal organizations. This⁤ could transform Venezuela into a battleground akin ⁢to contemporary Libya. Its geography⁤ – jungles, mountains, dense urban areas, and porous borders -⁤ is particularly conducive to guerrilla warfare. prolonged ⁤conflict and fragmentation would destabilize the ⁣region, potentially drawing the ⁢US into a protracted and ‌challenging ⁢intervention. The allure of controlling Venezuela’s considerable oil reserves – larger ⁤than Saudi Arabia’s and more than five times those of the US – would‍ likely prolong the fighting. However, even during periods‌ of democratic governance, Venezuela’s oil sector suffered from inefficiencies. Since 1998,production has collapsed by 75%,a outcome of low⁣ oil prices,US sanctions,corruption,and economic mismanagement.<div class=$