Turkey and Israel are reaping rewards from the chaos in Syria
Syrian Rebels Seize Momentum as Hezbollah weakened by Israel Conflict
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Aleppo Falls to islamist-Led insurgency, Raising Concerns for U.S.
A surprise offensive by Syrian rebels, spearheaded by the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has dramatically shifted the balance of power in the Syrian civil war. The insurgents’ rapid advance, capturing Aleppo and seizing control of Idlib province, highlights the significant repercussions of Israel’s recent conflict with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.Hezbollah, severely battered by Israel’s air strikes and ground campaign in southern Lebanon, is currently unable to play its usual role as a key defender of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government.This absence has created a vacuum that HTS and its allies, including Turkish-backed groups like the “Syrian National Army,” have swiftly exploited.
The rebels’ advance into Hama province, where they are engaged in fierce clashes with the syrian army backed by Russian airpower, underscores the gravity of the situation.the success of HTS, however, presents a complex dilemma for the united States. While the group has publicly distanced itself from its former parent association, Al-Qaeda, HTS remains committed to the Salafi-Jihadist ideology and is designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. and other countries.
“They [the armed anti-Syrian government factions] wanted to take advantage of this ceasefire agreement that restricts the movement of Hezbollah,” explained Riad Kahwaji,founder of the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.The timing of the rebel offensive, coinciding with the ceasefire between Israel and hezbollah, is no accident. The agreement, which requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, significantly hinders the group’s ability to operate effectively in Syria.Beyond the ceasefire, Hezbollah faces other challenges.The group is grappling with war fatigue after enduring heavy losses in its recent conflict with Israel.
“Hezbollah is no longer able to be heavily involved militarily in the events in Syria and has been tired by the war with israel,” according to retired Lebanese Army Gen. Hassan Jouni.
The group’s immediate focus will likely remain on the southern front with Israel, where the ceasefire appears to be holding, for the foreseeable future.
The unfolding situation in Syria presents a complex geopolitical puzzle with far-reaching implications. The rise of HTS, coupled with Hezbollah’s weakened position, raises serious concerns for the U.S. and its allies as they navigate the volatile landscape of the Middle East.
Syria Braces for New Offensive as Hezbollah Focus Shifts to Israel
Damascus, Syria – The Syrian government is facing a renewed offensive from insurgents, just as its key ally, Hezbollah, finds itself increasingly preoccupied with the escalating conflict with Israel. This precarious situation has prompted Iran, another staunch supporter of the Assad regime, to step up its involvement in Syria, sending military advisors and mobilizing allied iraqi militias to bolster the Syrian army.
The recent offensive, launched by a coalition of rebel groups, has put significant pressure on Syrian government forces, who are already stretched thin after years of brutal civil war. Sources close to Hezbollah told Real Story that the Lebanese Shiite movement, traditionally a vital fighting force for Assad, is now prioritizing its confrontation with Israel.”The priority now will be on the front with Israel,” the source said, adding that other players are likely to fill the void left by Hezbollah’s reduced involvement in Syria.
Iran, however, has made it clear that it will not abandon its Syrian ally.Iranian Foreign Minister abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus on Sunday, reaffirming Tehran’s commitment to supporting the Syrian government. Iran has also pledged to maintain its military presence in Syria,and fighters from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have crossed the border to reinforce Syrian troops.
This increased Iranian involvement comes at a crucial time for Tehran. Regional developments, particularly the recent escalation of tensions between israel and Hezbollah, have made it imperative for Iran to demonstrate its unwavering support for Assad.”There is this belief that given the events in Gaza and Lebanon,the axis of resistance could be undermined in Syria,but Iran wants to show that this is not the case and will not happen,” said Abbas Aslan,senior fellow at the Tehran-based Center for Middle East Strategic Studies.
However, it remains to be seen whether iran can effectively prop up the Syrian government without relying heavily on Hezbollah’s battle-hardened forces. While Russian airstrikes continue to target insurgent positions, the absence of Hezbollah’s ground troops could prove to be a significant challenge.
Experts are skeptical about the ability of Iran’s Iraqi allies to fully compensate for Hezbollah’s reduced presence in Syria. The Lebanese Shiite movement’s military capabilities far exceed those of the Iraqi armed Shiite factions. Moreover, U.S. influence in Iraq limits the number of fighters that pro-Iranian iraqi groups,such as the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd Al Shaabi),can deploy to Syria.
“We saw that the Iraqi Hashd forces were only able to send very limited reinforcements (to Syria),about two-to-three hundred,” explained military analyst Riad Kahwaji,adding that the United States was pressuring Baghdad not to provide Assad with support.
The incoming Trump administration’s stance on Syria remains unclear. Given President-elect Trump’s appointment of staunch Israeli supporters to key cabinet positions, there is speculation that U.S. policy towards Damascus will be heavily influenced by Israeli preferences. This could potentially lead to a more aggressive approach aimed at weakening or even ousting Assad,given his longstanding alliance with Iran,which remains a primary target for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“I think Israel sees Turkey’s role as kingpin in Syria as a good thing as it cuts the Shiite crescent in half,” Kahwaji said.
As the Syrian conflict enters a new and uncertain phase, the coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the fate of the Assad regime and the future of syria itself.
Trump’s Syria Strategy: A Second Term Puzzle
Will the President Double Down on His Pro-Israel Stance or Embrace a Pragmatic Approach?
As President Trump gears up for a potential second term, his Syria policy remains a subject of intense speculation.With the Syrian civil war entering its tenth year, the future of the country hangs in the balance, and Trump’s decisions could have far-reaching consequences.
One key question is how Trump will handle the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),a powerful Islamist group that controls much of northwestern syria. Some analysts,like Joshua Landis,director of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma,believe Trump’s pro-Israel stance could lead him to tolerate an HTS takeover.
“Given that Trump’s team is staunchly pro-Israel, Trump may therefore tolerate an Islamist takeover of Syria,” Landis said.
However, Trump’s past statements suggest a more complex picture. During his 2016 campaign, he expressed support for Russia, Iran, and Syria in their fight against ISIS, a group that shares HTS’s Salafi-Jihadist ideology.
“I don’t like Assad at all, but Assad is killing ISIS. Russia is killing ISIS and Iran is killing ISIS,” Trump remarked at the time. He also voiced his desire to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, a goal that remains unfulfilled.
While these pronouncements never materialized into concrete policy, there is a growing belief that Trump himself, rather than his advisors, will be the driving force behind foreign policy in a second term. Eight years ago, he clearly viewed Salafi-Jihadist groups as a greater threat to U.S.interests than Assad or Iran. Whether this perspective persists remains to be seen.
The coming months will be crucial in determining Trump’s Syria strategy. Will he prioritize his pro-israel allies, even at the risk of empowering HTS? Or will he pursue a more pragmatic approach, seeking to balance competing interests in the region? Only time will tell.
Syrian Rebel Gains Fuel Concerns as Hezbollah Weakened by Israel Conflict
Exclusive Interview with Near East Military Analyst Riad Kahwaji
NewsDirectory3.com – The Syrian civil war has taken a dramatic turn with unexpected gains by rebel forces, spearheaded by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
The capture of Aleppo and control of Idlib province mark a notable shift in the balance of power, raising concerns for the United States and highlighting the ripple effects of the recent israel-Hezbollah conflict.
To delve deeper into the implications of this evolving situation, NewsDirectory3.com spoke with Riad Kahwaji, founder of the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and gulf Military Analysis.
ND3: Mr. Kahwaji, what factors have contributed to the sudden advancement of Syrian rebel groups, particularly HTS?
Kahwaji: The timing of this offensive is no coincidence. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, requiring Hezbollah to reduce its armed presence in southern Lebanon, has created a power vacuum in Syria. Hezbollah, severely weakened by Israeli strikes and ground operations, is unable to play its usual role as a key defender of the Assad regime.This vacuum has been swiftly exploited by HTS and allied groups like the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army.
ND3: HTS is designated as a terrorist association by the US. How does this complicate matters for the US and its allies?
Kahwaji: HTS’s success presents a serious dilemma. While thay have publicly distanced themselves from Al-Qaeda, their commitment to Salafi-Jihadist ideology remains a cause for concern. The US faces a difficult choice – balancing its opposition to the Assad regime with its reluctance to empower a group like HTS.
ND3: What are the implications of HezbollahS weakened position in Syria?
Kahwaji: Hezbollah’s immediate focus will likely remain on the southern front with Israel, where the ceasefire is holding, at least for now. The group is suffering from war fatigue and heavy losses in its recent conflict.
This reduces their ability to effectively intervene in Syria. Iran, however, is stepping up its involvement, sending military advisors and mobilizing Iraqi militias to bolster the Syrian army. These developments underscore the complexities of the Syrian conflict and the precarious nature of regional alliances.
ND3: Thank you for your insights, Mr. Kahwaji.
The Syrian conflict continues to evolve with unforeseen consequences.
The rise of HTS and Hezbollah’s diminished role add further layers of complexity to an already volatile situation.
As international players navigate this geopolitical puzzle, the future of Syria remains uncertain.
NewsDirectory3.com will continue to monitor developments and provide updates on this critical story.