Turkey Elections: AKP-DEM Alliance & Potential Shifts in Voter Support
Political Realignment in Turkey: Potential for Unexpected Alliances
Ankara – Turkish politics are undergoing a period of significant flux, with recent polling data and political maneuvering suggesting the potential for surprising alliances ahead of the 2028 general election. While President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) currently maintains a lead in voting intentions, its dominance is showing cracks, prompting speculation about coalition scenarios and potential shifts in the political landscape.
Recent surveys indicate a slight gain for the AKP, with a 0.6% increase in support over the past 30 days, according to PolitPro. However, this modest improvement comes after a series of electoral setbacks for the ruling party, most notably in the 2024 local elections. The AKP’s loss in those elections reversed previous political tides and triggered a response from President Erdoğan, who pledged to “fix the mistakes” that led to the defeat.
The aftermath of the local elections has been marked by a series of controversial moves by the government. According to reporting from Global Voices, 21 mayoral seats won by the New Welfare Party (YRP) were transferred to the AKP after members defected. Eight mayors from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) and two from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) were replaced by government-appointed trustees. This practice of appointing trustees, particularly in predominantly Kurdish areas, has been ongoing since 2016, with a total of 147 mayors removed from office, according to civil society documentation.
Adding to the complexity of the political situation is the possibility of a potential rapprochement between the AKP and the DEM Party. Several Turkish news outlets are reporting on discussions and signals suggesting a possible alliance. T24 reports on growing closeness between the two parties, raising the question of a new coalition. soL Haber highlighted a response from the AKP regarding a potential election alliance with the DEM Party, referencing a past election result of 411 votes. Yirmidört TV also analyzed the possibility of an AKP/MHP/DEM alliance.
The potential for such an alliance is driven, in part, by economic considerations. Yeni Şafak reports that an economist, Ihsan Aktaş, believes a recovery in the economy could boost the AKP’s vote share by 5%, currently estimated at around 34%.
However, any move towards an alliance with the DEM Party carries risks for President Erdoğan. Reuters reports that pursuing peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) could alienate some of Erdoğan’s core supporters, particularly within the nationalist base. The Gündemar Survey, as reported by PA Turkey, shows that a majority of Turkish citizens oppose a political role for Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK.
As Turkey heads towards 2028, the political landscape remains highly uncertain. The potential for unexpected alliances, coupled with economic pressures and ongoing debates over the Kurdish question, suggests a period of continued volatility and realignment in Turkish politics.