UAE’s Exit from OPEC: Impact on Global Oil Prices and Market Dynamics

The United Arab Emirates announced on April 28, 2026, that it has quit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance. The departure comes at a time when a war with Iran has triggered a historic energy shock and destabilized the global economy.

The exit is regarded as a significant blow to the oil-exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia. The loss of the UAE, a longstanding member, threatens to create disarray and undermine the group’s efforts to maintain a united front regarding production quotas and geopolitics.

Regional Tensions and the Hormuz Crisis

The decision follows escalating tensions in the Gulf, where OPEC producers have struggled to transport exports through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow chokepoint between Oman and Iran is critical to global energy security, as a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas and crude oil normally passes through the waterway.

Shipping operations have been hampered by Iranian attacks and threats against vessels. The UAE’s move is closely tied to its frustration with regional allies over the response to these hostilities.

Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, criticized the response of Arab and Gulf states to Iranian attacks during a session at the Gulf Influencers Forum on April 27, 2026.

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically. I expect this weak stance from the Arab League and I am not surprised by it, but I haven’t expected it from the (Gulf) Cooperation Council and I am surprised by it

Anwar Gargash

U.S. Reaction and Economic Pressure

The UAE’s exit is viewed as a victory for U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has previously accused OPEC of ripping off the rest of the world by artificially inflating oil prices.

The U.S. President has explicitly linked American military support for Gulf nations to the pricing of oil, asserting that OPEC members exploit this by imposing high oil prices while the U.S. Provides defense for the region.

As one of Washington’s most critical allies and a regional hub for business, the UAE’s decision to leave the cartel aligns with these broader U.S. Pressures on the organization.

History of Saudi-Emirati Rifts

While the current exit is triggered by the conflict with Iran, the relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has been strained by oil policy for several years. In July 2021, a dispute over production quotas and output policy led to the collapse of an OPEC+ deal.

During that period, a proposal to increase production by 2 million barrels per day in monthly increments from August to December 2021 had initially gained consensus. However, the UAE objected to a Saudi proposal that would have maintained residual cuts of 3.8 million barrels per day beyond April 2022.

That 2021 stalemate exposed diverging domestic and regional policies between the two Gulf allies, moving their disagreements from quiet diplomacy into the public domain through television interviews given by their respective energy ministers.

The current departure from OPEC and OPEC+ represents a further escalation of these underlying tensions, combined with the immediate geopolitical pressures of the Iran war.