UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez – Odds, Picks & Predictions | Paramount+ Stream

HOUSTON, TX – Former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland faces a significant test this Saturday night at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, as he takes on the surging Anthony Hernandez in a UFC Fight Night main event. Hernandez enters the bout as a considerable favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, listed at -270, while Strickland is the +220 underdog.

The card, streaming live on Paramount+, also features a compelling co-main event between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic in the welterweight division. Neal, a Texas native, is favored at -192, with Medic at +160. The preliminary bouts begin at 5 p.m. ET, leading into the main card at 8 p.m. ET.

Strickland (29-7) is coming off a pair of defeats to Dricus du Plessis, losing both his middleweight title and the rematch. Despite those losses, Strickland remains a dangerous opponent, holding the record for the most significant strikes landed in the middleweight division with 1,465, and the third-most overall with 2,197. His fights frequently go the distance, with eight of his last ten bouts reaching the judges’ scorecards, and averaging 18:11 of fight time – the longest amongst UFC middleweights.

Hernandez (15-2), meanwhile, has been on a remarkable run, winning his last eight fights. He also leads the middleweight division in takedowns landed with 54. This impressive streak has positioned him as a serious contender in the 185-pound weight class, and a win over Strickland could propel him into title contention. Hernandez’s style often leads to quicker finishes, with only three of his 18 professional fights going the distance, and nine victories coming by submission.

The stylistic clash between Strickland and Hernandez presents a fascinating matchup. Strickland’s striking prowess and defensive capabilities will be tested against Hernandez’s relentless pace and grappling expertise. The betting outlook suggests Hernandez’s pressure and takedown threat will be key to victory, but Strickland’s ability to maintain distance and utilize his jab could prove problematic for the challenger.

In the co-main event, Geoff Neal (16-7) looks to rebound from a recent slump, having gone 1-3 in his last four fights. He’ll face Uros Medic (12-3), a fighter known for his striking power. Neal’s takedown defense (89.7% amongst active UFC welterweights) will be a crucial factor in keeping the fight standing, where he has the advantage. Medic, however, possesses a strong defensive background in judo and BJJ, suggesting a potentially competitive grappling exchange if the fight goes to the ground.

According to a model run by SportsLine, which simulated the fights 10,000 times, the co-main event is predicted to go over 1.5 rounds, with a 4.2% edge on the betting line. The model highlighted Neal’s strong takedown defense and Medic’s defensive skills as factors contributing to a more measured pace early in the fight.

The UFC Fight Night card also features Dan Ige versus Melquizael Costa, Serghei Spivac against Ante Delija, Jacobe Smith taking on Josiah Harrell, and Zach Reese battling Michel Pereira. The event promises a night of compelling action for MMA fans.

Paramount+ is the exclusive streaming home for UFC Fight Night events, offering access to all numbered events and Fight Nights at no additional cost. Subscribers also gain access to a wide range of other sports content, including UEFA Champions League, college basketball, NFL, and Big Ten on CBS, as well as numerous movies and shows. A subscription starts at $8.99 per month.

Fans looking to place bets on the fights can take advantage of a DraftKings promo code offering $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5+ bet. The SportsLine model has identified several promising betting opportunities, including a best bet returning over +500, and is backing several underdogs throughout the card.