Ukraine Conflict: Why “Peace” Proposals Fail
- This article argues that the current push for a swift peace deal in Ukraine, notably as seemingly advocated by former President Trump, is potentially counterproductive and could ultimately...
- * Shaky Ceasefire: A ceasefire currently feels unstable, and without a firm U.S.
- should focus on changing Putin's calculations, recognizing his ambitions extend beyond just Donetsk and that he seeks to keep Ukraine within Russia's sphere of influence.
Summary of the Article: A Cautious Approach to Peace in Ukraine
This article argues that the current push for a swift peace deal in Ukraine, notably as seemingly advocated by former President Trump, is potentially counterproductive and could ultimately strengthen Russia’s position. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
Problems with Deploying a European Force Tied to a Ceasefire:
* Shaky Ceasefire: A ceasefire currently feels unstable, and without a firm U.S. commitment to back it up, European nations are hesitant to commit troops.
* Incentivizes Russian Prolongation: Tying troop deployment to a ceasefire rewards Russia for continuing the war, as they can leverage the threat of continued conflict to extract concessions.
* Russian Veto: Russia fundamentally opposes Western troops in Ukraine, a demand reflected in earlier U.S. peace plan drafts. Preemptive measures like air policing in Western Ukraine could bypass this, but European capitals are too fearful of escalation.
* Undermines Deterrence: The fear of escalation weakens the deterrent effect of any potential force.
The Path to a Lasting Peace:
* Shift the Kremlin’s Calculus: The U.S. should focus on changing Putin’s calculations, recognizing his ambitions extend beyond just Donetsk and that he seeks to keep Ukraine within Russia’s sphere of influence.
* Moscow Must Lower Expectations: Peace is impractical unless Russia significantly reduces its demands.Ukraine will also need to make concessions, particularly regarding NATO aspirations, but Russia is the primary obstacle.
* Avoid Strong-Arming Ukraine: Pressuring Ukraine to cede territory, mirroring Russian arguments, and reducing aid will likely harden Putin’s stance.
* Uphold Principles: Abandoning the principle of opposing territorial acquisition by force would damage U.S. credibility with allies and embolden adversaries like China.
What the U.S. Should Do:
* Bolster Ukraine’s Bargaining Position: Increase military assistance to Ukraine.
* Create Urgency for Russia: Make Putin realize that continuing the war will only bring more pain. The EU’s recent financial pledge is a positive step, and the U.S. should contribute similarly.
In essence, the article advocates for a patient, strategic approach that prioritizes strengthening Ukraine’s position and changing Putin’s calculations, rather than rushing into a potentially detrimental peace deal.