Civilian casualties in Ukraine have surged in recent months, with a marked increase in the number of people killed or injured per strike, according to new data released Monday. The findings, compiled by the international research organization Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), paint a grim picture of a conflict entering its fourth year, where the humanitarian situation is deteriorating despite a slight overall decrease in armed incidents.
The analysis points to a shift in Russian tactics, with each strike now resulting in a higher number of civilian casualties than in previous periods. This escalation comes as diplomatic efforts to secure a lasting peace remain stalled, with Ukrainian officials reporting a relentless barrage of attacks. President Zelenskyy recently reported the launch of approximately 1,300 drones, alongside hundreds of air-launched munitions and ballistic missiles, in the preceding week alone.
Ukraine: An Escalation in Explosive Attacks Against Civilians
The human cost of 2025 in Ukraine reflects a disturbing trend in aerial strike patterns. The average number of civilians killed or injured per attack rose significantly from 3.6 in 2024 to 4.8 in 2025, representing a 33% increase. In absolute terms, this translates to 2,248 Ukrainians killed and 12,493 others injured due to shelling. While these figures are already substantial, the AOAV cautions that they likely underestimate the true extent of the devastation, as their analysis relies exclusively on English-language media reports, which are inherently incomplete.
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the report is the nature of this escalation. A 6% decrease in the total number of incidents suggests that operations are less frequent, but demonstrably more destructive. This trend runs counter to global patterns; worldwide, the use of explosive weapons decreased by 18% in 2025, accompanied by a 24% reduction in related civilian casualties. Ukraine, however, experienced the opposite trajectory, with a 26% increase in civilian deaths and injuries caused by explosives.
This paradox underscores how the Ukrainian conflict is intensifying in human terms precisely as other global conflict zones show signs of de-escalation. The AOAV’s findings suggest a breakdown in restraint, with a diminishing respect for the principles of distinction and proportionality in warfare.
Analysis of Russian Military Strategies and Humanitarian Impacts
According to the organization, the methods employed by Russian forces with explosive munitions indicate a deliberate attempt to maximize their impact on civilian populations. This intensification could be attributed to several converging factors: an increased reliance on kamikaze drones, the use of larger-caliber munitions, the preferential targeting of densely populated areas, and repeated strikes against essential urban infrastructure. Each of these possibilities aligns with distinct military objectives, but all contribute to a growing humanitarian toll.
The structural consequences of this phenomenon warrant particular attention. Each attack destroys more civilian buildings, medical facilities, and energy supply networks, creating a cycle of vulnerability in affected territories. Already strained healthcare systems are overwhelmed by a constant influx of severe injuries. Damage to energy infrastructure exposes the population to potentially lethal winter conditions. This downward spiral shows no signs of abating in the short term, with experts predicting that a resolution to the conflict is unlikely in 2026.
The intensification of attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, particularly in recent months, has created widespread disruptions to electricity, heating, and water supplies. Reports indicate that attacks in January specifically targeted district heating infrastructure, leaving thousands of apartment buildings without heat as temperatures plummeted below -20 degrees Celsius. This deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure raises serious concerns about potential war crimes and the disregard for international humanitarian law.
The AOAV report echoes concerns raised by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), which warned of mounting violations and growing risks to civilians. The HRMMU has verified that conflict-related violence has killed more than 15,000 people and injured over 41,000 since February 2022, the vast majority in territory controlled by Ukraine. The UN body also highlighted the widespread and systematic use of torture and ill-treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilian detainees by Russian authorities, as well as reports of sexual violence and executions.
The escalating violence in Ukraine underscores the urgent need for increased international attention and a renewed commitment to protecting civilians. While diplomatic efforts continue, the immediate priority must be to alleviate the suffering of those caught in the crossfire and to hold perpetrators of war crimes accountable for their actions. The AOAV’s findings serve as a stark reminder of the human cost of this conflict and the imperative to find a peaceful resolution.
