Munich, Germany – European intelligence agencies are expressing growing skepticism that a comprehensive peace agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine will be reached this year, despite recent assertions from the United States suggesting progress in negotiations. The assessment, shared by intelligence chiefs from five European nations, points to a perceived lack of genuine commitment from Moscow to a swift resolution, and a growing divergence in perspectives between European capitals and Washington.
The pessimism stems from observations that Russia appears to be utilizing ongoing talks, including the latest round held this week in Geneva, primarily to advance broader strategic goals rather than to genuinely pursue a ceasefire. According to one senior European intelligence official, the negotiations are largely negotiation theater
.
This assessment contrasts with the more optimistic tone emanating from the U.S., where officials, including Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have indicated a potential pathway towards a deal. However, European intelligence officials believe Russia is leveraging the discussions to potentially secure sanctions relief and favorable trade agreements, while simultaneously maintaining its military pressure on Ukraine.
The core objectives of Russia remain largely unchanged, officials say. These include weakening Ukraine’s leadership and establishing the country as a neutral buffer zone between Russia and the West. , Reuters reported that intelligence assessments indicate Moscow does not foresee an urgent need for a settlement, judging that the Russian economy, while under strain from international sanctions, is not on the verge of collapse.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated his willingness to engage in peace talks, but consistently on terms that are demonstrably favorable to Russia – a position that continues to present a significant obstacle to any meaningful progress. Recent U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva failed to yield any breakthroughs, particularly concerning territorial disputes. Russia is demanding that Ukraine withdraw from areas of the Donetsk region it does not currently control, a condition Kyiv has unequivocally rejected.
European officials caution that even if Ukraine were to concede territory, it is unlikely to bring a definitive end to the conflict. Instead, they fear such concessions could simply open the door to further Russian demands and a continuation of the war under different pretenses. The concern is that Russia views territorial gains not as a means to peace, but as a stepping stone towards achieving its broader strategic objectives in Ukraine.
Beyond the substance of the negotiations, some intelligence officials have also raised concerns about the West’s approach to the process. They suggest a perceived lack of experience and strategic clarity within Western negotiating teams, potentially hindering their ability to effectively counter Russia’s tactics. This criticism extends to concerns about the overall coordination between European capitals and Washington.
The growing disconnect between European and American perspectives is particularly noteworthy. Kyiv has reportedly accused the U.S. Of potentially seeking to finalize a peace agreement before November’s U.S. Midterm elections, a timeline that some Ukrainian officials believe would prioritize political considerations over a sustainable resolution to the conflict. President Trump, however, has expressed confidence in Putin’s desire to reach an agreement.
One European intelligence chief stated bluntly that Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. It is pursuing its strategic objectives, and these have not changed
. These objectives reportedly include the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the transformation of Ukraine into a neutral state serving as a buffer zone with the West.
Another official indicated that Russia does not want or need a quick peace
, asserting that its economy is not on the brink of collapse
. This assessment challenges the narrative that economic pressure is forcing Russia to seek a negotiated settlement.
the idea that Ukraine ceding control of the Donetsk region would lead to a swift peace deal has been dismissed by some European intelligence officials. They argue that even complete control of Donetsk would not enable Moscow to achieve its ultimate goal of overthrowing Ukraine’s pro-Western government.
The officials who provided this information did not disclose the sources of their intelligence, but confirmed that their agencies rely on a combination of human intelligence, intercepted communications, and other methods of data collection. All affirmed that Russia remains a top priority for their respective intelligence services.
A recurring theme among the intelligence chiefs is a concern about the limited expertise in negotiating with Russia within Western Europe. One official expressed worry about a very limited
level of skills in dealing with Moscow, even as President Zelensky advocates for a more active European role in the peace talks. This suggests a potential gap in capabilities that could further complicate the negotiation process.
The diverging assessments highlight the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding the conflict in Ukraine and the challenges of forging a lasting peace. While the U.S. Continues to express optimism, European intelligence agencies appear to be bracing for a protracted conflict, with Russia showing little inclination to compromise on its core objectives.
