Four years after launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has exposed a series of miscalculations and resulted in a devastating toll, with troop casualties approaching 2 million according to recent estimates. What began with an expectation of a swift victory for Russia has evolved into a protracted war of attrition, reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Europe.
On , as missiles rained down on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, the prospect of a full-scale Russian assault still seemed improbable to many. Vladimir Putin, having previously demonstrated a willingness to wield Russia’s military power in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, and eastern Ukraine, had seemingly achieved success at a relatively low cost. However, an invasion of Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe, presented a far more complex and potentially catastrophic undertaking.
The initial expectation within the Kremlin, according to research from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), was that Russian forces would gain control of Ukraine within just 10 days. More than 1450 days later, that timeframe appears “hopelessly naïve,” and represents a “fundamental miscalculation.”
The war has challenged long-held assumptions about both Ukraine’s resilience and Russia’s military prowess. Prior to the invasion, there was a widespread belief, even among Kyiv’s allies, that Ukraine would be too weak and disorganized to mount a sustained resistance. Similarly, the reputation of invincibility surrounding the Russian military has been significantly damaged.
The human cost of the conflict is immense, though precise figures remain elusive. Information within Russia is tightly controlled, and official casualty figures are withheld from the public. Estimates from multiple sources, however, suggest “eye-wateringly high” losses on both sides. A recent study, published in January , indicates that combined troop casualties – including deaths, injuries, and those missing – are nearing 2 million.
The Economist reported on that modelling reveals a grim toll after four years of fighting. While specific numbers weren’t provided in the available source material, the report underscores the scale of the devastation.
The conflict has become Europe’s largest since World War II, causing immense suffering for civilians and harrowing ordeals for soldiers. The initial expectation of a quick victory has given way to a grinding war of attrition, with both sides digging in for a protracted struggle. The true cost, beyond the immediate casualties, is still unfolding, and the long-term consequences for Ukraine, Russia, and the wider international community remain uncertain.
As the war enters its fifth year, the Kremlin is still paying the price for what many observers describe as a fatal miscalculation. The initial assumptions about Ukraine’s weakness and the ease of achieving a swift victory have proven to be dramatically wrong, leaving Russia embroiled in a costly and protracted conflict with no clear end in sight.
