A seemingly paradoxical trend is unfolding in Ukraine as its war with Russia enters its third year: an increasing number of young men are leaving the country, despite the ongoing conflict. A recent change in government policy, allowing Ukrainian men aged 18-22 to depart for the first time since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, has facilitated this movement, primarily towards Poland and Germany.
While Ukraine maintains a draft age of 25, recruitment has proven challenging. The decision to allow younger men to leave was ostensibly to provide opportunities for study abroad, with the expectation that the skills acquired would contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, interviews with those who have taken advantage of the new rules reveal a more complex picture, driven by a desire for safety and a reluctance to face potential conscription.
Data from the Polish Border Guard indicates a six-fold increase in crossings by Ukrainian men aged 18-22 between September 2025 and the end of January 2026, compared to the same period the previous year, with a total of 184,000 crossings recorded. This figure includes multiple journeys and short-term visits, but underscores the significant uptake of the new policy. Similar trends have been observed in Germany, prompting criticism from some politicians who argue that Ukraine should prioritize its defense needs.
The motivations behind this exodus are multifaceted. Vadym, a 22-year-old from Chernihiv now working for a Ukrainian logistics firm in Warsaw, expressed a clear intention to build a life in Poland. “I’d like to build my future life here. Maybe I’ll return to Ukraine, but it’s hard to tell for now,” he said, adding that the prospect of being drafted was a major deterrent. “Of course, I don’t want to be there,” he stated, recalling the loss of acquaintances in the war. “The war affected everyone in its own way.”
Maksym, a 21-year-old graphic design student from Kyiv, arrived in Poznan in early January with plans to continue his studies and find work. He cited safety and economic opportunity as key factors in his decision. “I want to live in safety and Poland is economically convenient for me,” he explained, also expressing concern about future conscription. “I don’t really want to fight, unfortunately.”
Beyond immediate safety concerns, the constant threat of missile attacks is also driving young Ukrainians to seek refuge abroad. Vania, a 22-year-old cybersecurity graduate originally from occupied Lugansk, described the psychological toll of living under the shadow of war. “The missile attacks increase. It’s not good [for] me, it’s not good for other people, they’re depressed,” he said. After initially residing in a refugee camp in Sweden, he is now settling into a studio flat near Stockholm and actively seeking employment.
The easing of travel restrictions has not been without controversy. Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder publicly called on Kyiv to restrict the departure of young men, arguing that they should be focused on defending their homeland. However, many observers acknowledge the difficult position faced by Ukraine’s youth, caught between a desire for a normal life and the obligations of wartime citizenship.
Ukraine’s armed forces currently number approximately one million personnel, with around 300,000 deployed on the front lines. The government has stated its intention to increase the military to 800,000 personnel as part of any future peace settlement. However, achieving this goal is complicated by underlying demographic challenges.
Marcin Jedrysiak, a Ukraine specialist at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, points to a long-term decline in Ukraine’s birth rate, particularly between 1996 and 2006, as a contributing factor. Ukraine’s population has fallen from around 51 million in the early 1990s to an estimated 28-35 million today, a decline dramatically accelerated by Russia’s full-scale invasion. This demographic reality means that Ukraine’s military is increasingly reliant on older age groups, with many units comprised of men in their 30s and 40s.
Despite the immediate challenges, the desire to return home remains strong for many Ukrainians who left earlier in the conflict. Vania, who arrived in Poland with his mother almost four years ago, expressed a fervent wish to return to his hometown of Dnipro as soon as the war ends. “I can definitely see my future life in Ukraine. I really want to return there,” he said, even contemplating a return during the ongoing conflict. “As soon as the war ends, I’ll go back there instantly.”
Jedrysiak suggests that post-war Ukraine may experience “serious social divisions” between those who remained during the war and those who left. This potential rift underscores the long-term social and political consequences of the ongoing conflict and the difficult choices faced by Ukraine’s young people.
