Ukraine’s FIS: Russia seeks China transit as drone attacks paralyze ports
- Russian grain shipments through the Black Sea plummeted to 347,000 metric tons during the second ten-day period of September 2026, dropping sharply from 1.3 million tons during the...
- The delivery bottlenecks emerged after operations stopped at Azov Sea ports and Black Sea terminals following a systematic campaign by Ukrainian unmanned systems in July 2026.
- The shutdowns created a severe accumulation of grain across the Southern Federal District.
Russian grain shipments through the Black Sea plummeted to 347,000 metric tons during the second ten-day period of September 2026, dropping sharply from 1.3 million tons during the same period in 2025, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
Southern Ports Stalled by Drone Strikes and Canal Closures
The delivery bottlenecks emerged after operations stopped at Azov Sea ports and Black Sea terminals following a systematic campaign by Ukrainian unmanned systems in July 2026. UkraAgroConsult noted that Ukrainian systems struck 105 Russian vessels over an eight-day period in July, targeting river-sea class tankers and support ships used to supply Crimea and sustain military logistics. Consequently, Moscow halted vessel movement along the Don-Azov Canal for a time and stopped handling requests for transit through the Kerch Strait.
The shutdowns created a severe accumulation of grain across the Southern Federal District. UkraAgroConsult reported that agricultural stocks in the region exceeded 10 million tons by the end of August 2026, nearly one-third higher than the previous year. Across Russia, grain and pulse stocks at large and medium-sized organizations reached roughly 41 million tons, marking a 9% increase year-on-year. Transshipment costs through Novorossiysk directly from railcars surged to $50 or more per ton, compared to an average of about $7 per ton through storage facilities in Azov previously. Later in the year, emergency declarations were enacted in the Rostov region during late August and in the Krasnodar region in late September.
Alternative Export Routes Face Infrastructure Limits
Russian grain exporters are attempting to redirect shipments through Baltic and Arctic ports and overland routes to China, but infrastructure constraints prevent those pathways from replacing southern terminals. Andrey Sizov, head of the analytical firm SovEcon, stated The harsh reality is that there are simply no export routes that could replace the Black Sea.
To reach Baltic options, the Ultramar terminal at Ust-Luga received rail delivery requests for about 260,000 tons of grain in September 2026, but that route handles a maximum of around 500,000 tons per month even at full capacity. Meanwhile, Russian Railways approved an initial shipment of 40,000 tons through a northern route via Murmansk, though transporting grain from main producing regions to the Arctic port adds an estimated $18 to $25 per ton in logistics costs.
For Asian markets, Russian Grain Association (RGA) executive director Ksenia Bolomatova confirmed at the Golden Autumn 2026 exhibition in Moscow that the organization is working on transit options via China. Overland shipments through the New Land Grain Corridor increased from 2.3 million tons in 2024 to 5.8 million tons in 2025, with volumes expected to reach approximately 9 million tons. However, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service noted that the corridor faces strict limits including rail and terminal capacity, tariffs, Chinese quotas, and phytosanitary requirements.
Export Restrictions Threaten Russia's Future Sowing Campaigns
Russia’s total harvest is projected at approximately 140 million tons, but export potential is expected to fall from a planned 59 million tons down to 39 million tons. Vladimir Petrichenko, head of ProZerno, estimated that carryover stocks could reach 34.8 million tons by the end of the year. Industry experts warn that persistent export restrictions will continue inflating storage expenses and tying up agricultural producers’ working capital, potentially disrupting preparations for the 2027/28 sowing campaign.