Ukraine’s Losing War: Why Kyiv Must Negotiate With Russia Now | Foreign Affairs
Ukraine Faces Hard Realities as War Enters Fifth Year
Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Trump administration is reportedly pressing Kyiv to consider painful territorial concessions as the price for peace. A draft peace agreement, first reported by Axios in November, proposes recognizing Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territory, and allowing Russia to retain control of occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is resisting demands that would violate his country’s territorial integrity, but the realities on the battlefield are increasingly unfavorable for Ukraine.
Despite valiant resistance, Ukraine is losing the war. Russia controls a significant portion of Ukrainian territory, and Kyiv has little prospect of dislodging them, as demonstrated by the failed 2023 counteroffensive. While recent Russian gains have been slow and costly, Moscow now holds almost a fifth of the land within Ukraine’s 1991 borders, and its greater resources and population suggest it can sustain the conflict for years to come. Overcoming these advantages would require time and investment that Ukraine currently lacks, pushing Kyiv toward a compromise peace that will inevitably involve territorial surrender.
The Weight of Losses
The trajectory of the war favors Russia when measured by battlefield losses. According to estimates from the Russian media outlet Mediazona, which tracks military deaths through social media, obituaries, and official government notices, approximately 156,151 Russians have been killed in the war as of the end of 2025. Factoring in underreporting, Mediazona estimates the total Russian death toll at 219,000. The Ukrainian nongovernmental organization UA Losses, using a similar methodology, reports 87,045 Ukrainian soldiers killed in action and 85,906 missing in action, a figure likely including unacknowledged deaths and desertions.
Although Ukraine’s absolute losses are lower, the war is depleting a greater proportion of its manpower. Ukraine’s population is just under 36 million, roughly 26 percent of Russia’s 140 million. Ukraine has approximately 9.5 million men between the ages of 25 and 54, and has lost between one and two percent of that cohort. Russia, with over 30.2 million men in the same age group, has experienced losses representing just 0.5 to 0.7 percent of its total.
Russia is also increasingly relying on contract soldiers, keeping conscripts away from the front lines, resulting in more motivated troops. Moscow is reportedly not facing significant recruitment challenges. Ukraine, in contrast, heavily relies on conscription, and recent shortfalls and desertions have led to increasingly harsh measures to meet recruitment goals of 30,000 men per month, including forcibly recruiting men off the streets. These methods are unpopular and are yielding older, less healthy, and unwilling soldiers, many of whom desert.
A Disparity in Arms
Ukraine is outgunned in major weapons systems. As of 2025, Russia’s tank numbers exceeded Ukraine’s by nearly five to one, including equipment in storage. Russia also possessed more than three times as many infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 670 pieces of towed artillery compared to Ukraine’s 543, five times as much mobile artillery, nearly ten times as many multiple launch rocket systems, and nearly five times as many mortars. Russia has 163 combat aircraft, while Ukraine has 66.
Economically, Russia also holds an advantage. Russia’s 2024 GDP, measured by purchasing power parity, was almost $7 trillion, compared to Ukraine’s $657 billion—less than ten percent of Russia’s. Russia can allocate approximately $484 billion to defense, while Ukraine, even spending 30 percent of its GDP, can muster only $197 billion.
While Ukraine has received substantial financial and military assistance from Western countries, Russia has a large indigenous defense industry and significant military stockpiles, and has also secured support from allies like China and North Korea.
Strategic Objectives and a Potential Path Forward
Russia’s stated objectives include control of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Russia’s initial support for the Minsk agreements, which did not include further territorial demands, suggests that preventing NATO expansion was a key priority. The formal annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk, plus Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in September 2022, signaled a shift in ambitions.
Currently, Russia controls 99 percent of Luhansk, 76 percent of Kherson, 74 percent of Donetsk, and 72 percent of Donetsk. Russian forces are advancing in Zaporizhzhia and maintaining limited operations in the north to create a buffer zone. Russia’s response to the Trump administration’s peace plan—which would deliver Moscow all of Donetsk and Luhansk, but only parts of other eastern regions—suggests that complete control of the Donbas remains a consistent objective.
Ukraine, however, remains committed to restoring control over territory within its 1991 borders and defending its sovereignty, including the freedom to join any alliance it chooses. But Ukraine lacks the military resources and political will for a robust defense.
Given the length of the frontline and Ukraine’s manpower problems, most Ukrainian units are forced to remain on the defensive. Russia’s construction of the Surovikin Line in 2023 halted Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Ukraine has belatedly begun building similar defenses, but its ambitious objective of territorial liberation has left its army with few incentives to fortify the frontline. Corruption has also undermined Ukraine’s war effort, including the construction of fortifications.
Russia’s objectives appear compatible with its capabilities and battlefield trends. Ukraine’s objectives, in contrast, seem increasingly unattainable. Accepting a bad peace deal now, while painful, could allow Ukraine to rebuild and strengthen its defenses for the future. Rejecting a compromise risks prolonging a costly and losing war.