US Home Health Care Spending: 2033 Forecast
Home health care spending saw a slowdown in 2024,yet the financial trajectory of the US healthcare system remains robust.National health spending is on track to reach a staggering $8.6 trillion by 2033,with the healthcare sector’s share of the economy climbing to over 20%. This comprehensive analysis reveals critical shifts in Medicare and Medicaid spending, dissecting the impacts of changing enrollment figures as public and private health insurance dynamics evolve. The report highlights the 8.5% growth in home health care in 2024 and forecasts the future for both public and private healthcare sectors. News Directory 3 keeps you informed by taking a look at these complex patterns of expenditure, especially considering shifts in personal health care spending. Examine these trends, and understand what’s being predicted next for the US home health care market. Discover what’s next …
Health Care Spending Growth Slows, But Still Outpaces GDP
Updated June 28, 2025
The rate of increase in home health care spending slowed in 2024, growing 8.5% compared to 10.8% the previous year. This deceleration in health care spending growth follows trends observed after the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) report published in Health Affairs.
Despite the slowdown, health care expenditure is projected to outpace GDP growth. The CMS report forecasts national health spending to reach $8.6 trillion by 2033. Health care’s share of the economy is expected to reach 20.3% by that year, a 2.7% increase from 2023.
The insured portion of the population hit a record high of 92.5% in 2023, driven by high Medicaid enrollment due to continuous enrollment requirements enacted during the pandemic.
personal health care spending is expected to rise 8.7% in 2024, after a 9.4% increase in 2023. This growth exceeded insurer predictions, leading to higher medical loss ratios for some publicly traded companies.
Medicare and Medicaid Trends
Medicare expenses increased to $1.1 trillion in 2024,up to 8.3% from 8.1% in 2023. A slower rise in Medicare Advantage capitation rates offset faster growth in fee-for-service payments. Medicare spending is projected to grow 7.7% in 2025, with continued growth expected through 2033.
In contrast, Medicaid spending decreased to 6.2% in 2024, down from 7.9% in 2023, totaling $925.6 billion. Enrollment also fell by 7.9% in 2024. However, spending growth is expected to rise to 7.4% in 2025, even with a projected 1.2% reduction in Medicaid enrollment.
Private health insurance is projected to grow 7.6% in 2025. Out-of-pocket spending growth is expected to slow to 6.4% in 2025,down from 7.3% in 2024. By 2033, private health insurance spending is projected to grow at an average rate of 4.3% annually.
What’s next
Future legislative and regulatory changes could substantially impact health insurance coverage, spending trends, and cost-sharing requirements, ultimately affecting health care’s share of GDP by 2033, the report concluded.