U.S. And Iran Pursue Nuclear Deal Amidst Looming Deadlines and Military Tensions
Geneva and Washington – Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran continue, focused on reaching a nuclear peace agreement, even as a potential military confrontation looms. U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a decision point within the next 10 to 15 days, warning that “bad things happen” if a deal isn’t reached, while Iranian officials express cautious optimism about a “clearer path ahead.”
The talks, mediated by Oman, center on Iran’s nuclear program, specifically its enrichment capabilities and supply of highly enriched uranium. According to diplomatic sources, Iran has indicated a willingness to purchase American aircraft and potentially offer access to oil and gas fields for joint investment opportunities in exchange for sanctions relief.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are leading the discussions, with assistance from Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi. The U.S. Delegation also includes Director of Policy Planning Michael Anton, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper, and Jared Kushner, a senior advisor to President Trump. Rafael Grossi, head of the U.N. Nuclear watchdog, has also been consulted.
However, significant hurdles remain. While some diplomats have advised separating the nuclear issue from other contentious areas – such as Iran’s support for regional militias and its ballistic missile program – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists any agreement must address all three. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment, stating a “meaningful deal” must include limitations on Iran’s ballistic missiles and destabilizing regional activities.
President Trump has been less specific about the terms of a deal, but has repeatedly stated that Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon.” He acknowledged on Thursday he is nearing a decision point, and prefers diplomacy to military action. Diplomats suggest the deadline may be sooner than 15 days, potentially aligning with Trump’s State of the Union address next Tuesday, February 24th.
The possibility of military action is not being dismissed. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering a limited strike on Iran to increase pressure in the negotiations. American and Israeli officials have reportedly discussed joint operations targeting Iran’s ballistic missile supply, a program Israel views as a severe threat. However, any military action, even limited in scope, risks derailing the diplomatic process.
The ongoing negotiations acknowledge that Iran’s nuclear ambitions may not have been entirely dismantled by previous U.S. Military actions, despite claims of “total obliteration” following Operation Midnight Hammer last summer.
Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan, have expressed opposition to using their territory for any military operation and are supporting diplomatic efforts. Roughly 40,000 U.S. Troops are stationed in the Middle East, many in these countries, potentially putting them at risk of retaliation should conflict erupt.
Turkey has also engaged in efforts to encourage Iran to negotiate, despite past disappointments stemming from the U.S. Withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the subsequent military strikes. The current diplomatic push, encouraged by Turkey and Arab states, does not focus on regime change, but rather on “changing the policies of the regime,” according to one Middle East official. However, the official also acknowledged a “strong current in America that has interest in regime change in Iran.”
President Trump was briefed Wednesday on the latest developments, including the indirect talks in Geneva led by Kushner and Witkoff with Iranian diplomat Abbas Araghchi.
