TEHERAN – Rising tensions in the Middle East are fueling concerns of an imminent military confrontation between the United States and Iran, with multiple indicators suggesting a potential strike could occur in the coming days. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of Israel, and responses from various nations point to a rapidly escalating crisis.
US Military Posture and Troop Movements
Reports indicate a repositioning of US military assets in the region. The New York Times reported on Friday that hundreds of US troops have been withdrawn from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, citing anonymous Pentagon sources. Personnel have been evacuated from Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. US forces remain stationed in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates.
This troop movement is widely interpreted as a precautionary measure ahead of a possible US strike on Iran, anticipating a retaliatory response from Tehran targeting American forces in the region. The US Central Command, responsible for Iran and surrounding areas, has not yet commented on the reports.
In a letter to the United Nations Secretary-General on Thursday, Iran’s mission to the UN warned that any attack on Iranian territory would be met with a response targeting “all bases, facilities, and assets of the aggressor forces in the region.” The letter explicitly stated that the United States would be held “fully responsible and directly accountable for any unforeseen and uncontrolled consequences.”
Al Udeid Air Base is the largest US military installation in the Middle East, housing approximately 10,000 personnel.
European Nations Issue Travel Warnings
Amidst the escalating tensions, several European nations are advising their citizens to leave Iran. The German Embassy in Tehran updated its warning on Friday, urging German nationals to depart the country due to the increased risk of regional escalation, according to Anadolu Agency.
Context: Recent History of Conflict
The current situation builds upon a history of strained relations and direct conflict between Iran and Israel, and between Iran and the United States. In June 2025, Israel and Iran engaged in a twelve-day conflict, often referred to as the “Twelve-Day War.” This conflict began with an Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iran, and involved a complex series of retaliatory strikes and counter-strikes. The United States provided support to Israel during this period.
According to available data from the conflict, Israel reported 32 civilian and one off-duty soldier fatalities, along with 3,238 wounded. Iran reported a significantly higher casualty count, claiming 1,060 killed and 5,800 wounded, although these figures have not been independently verified. Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reported 1,190 deaths, including 436 civilians, 435 military personnel, and 319 unidentified individuals, with 4,475 injured.
The conflict in June 2025 saw extensive use of drones and missiles, with Iran claiming to have destroyed 61+ UAVs and cruise missiles and seized over 10,000 drones. Israel reported shooting down two Hermes drones.
Diplomatic Efforts and US Presidential Stance
Despite the heightened military preparations, diplomatic efforts have continued. Recent talks between Iran and the United States in Geneva resulted in what Iranian officials described as “guiding principles” for a deal to avoid conflict. However, these talks appear to have done little to de-escalate the situation.
US President Donald Trump has publicly signaled a willingness to take military action. On Wednesday, February 18, 2026, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform suggesting a potential strike on Iran. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt subsequently stated that “Iran would be very wise to make a deal with President Trump and with his administration.”
Imminent Threat Assessment
Sources cited by Axios news reported on Wednesday that a potential US-Iran war could be a prolonged, multi-week campaign. A White House official reportedly assessed the chances of a strike in the coming weeks at 90 percent. The potential conflict is expected to be a joint US-Israeli operation, potentially larger in scale than the twelve-day conflict witnessed in June 2025.
Former IDF Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin suggested on Wednesday that a confrontation could be imminent, advising individuals to reconsider international travel from Israel. However, Yadlin also cautioned that a superpower does not typically initiate war without exhausting all diplomatic avenues, acknowledging the ongoing negotiations. He noted that while there is significant opposition to a strike within the Pentagon, President Trump appears determined, and the threat of military action is considered credible, evidenced by military preparations both off the coast of Iran and in the airspace above.
The situation remains highly fluid and volatile, with the potential for rapid escalation. The coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomatic efforts can avert a new military conflict in the Middle East.
