TOKYO — The U.S.-Japan alliance, a cornerstone of regional security for over seven decades, is entering a period of significant reassessment as it navigates a shifting global landscape and a potentially disruptive second term for former U.S. President Donald Trump. Experts warn that the relationship, traditionally characterized by strong mutual commitment, is evolving into a more transactional dynamic, requiring both nations to reimagine its foundations.
Speaking at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan , Joshua Walker, president of the New York-based Japan Society, outlined a growing divergence in the soft power wielded by the United States and Japan. While Washington grapples with internal political polarization and a perceived decline in global influence, Tokyo is experiencing a surge in cultural and economic clout, fueled by the international popularity of its entertainment industries and a reputation for stability.
“The U.S.’s soft power is declining, while Japan’s is increasing,” Walker stated. He attributed the American decline to factors including domestic instability and a foreign policy approach under Trump that prioritizes immediate gains over long-term diplomatic relationships. Japan, conversely, is building its influence through “quiet confidence,” a stable political environment, and the global appeal of its cultural exports, such as anime and video games.
This shift in dynamics presents a complex challenge for Tokyo, which finds itself strategically positioned between its primary ally, the United States, and a rising China. Walker emphasized the need for a fundamental re-evaluation of the alliance, moving beyond a focus on leader-to-leader interactions towards strengthening ties between the private sectors and fostering people-to-people connections. He also stressed the importance of Japan bolstering its own self-defense capabilities.
“It’s not that the alliance is going to be over—it’s that the alliance needs to be reimagined for the future, and that the alliance is not simply the president and prime minister, or Washington and [Tokyo],” Walker explained. He pointed to the example of Ukraine, arguing that even a smaller nation, with adequate resources and determination, can effectively deter aggression.
The call for increased Japanese self-reliance comes amid growing pressure from Washington for Tokyo to significantly increase its defense spending, potentially reaching 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Currently, Japan allocates approximately 2% of its GDP to defense. Walker questioned the economic sustainability of such a substantial increase, suggesting that a creative solution will be necessary.
“I think there’s going to have to be a creative way to solve this, but I don’t think that we’re going to end up at just 2%,” he said. “I think it is going to have to be higher, but I think 5% might be a bridge too far.”
Beyond economic considerations, Japan also faces the perennial concern of being sidelined in the event of a rapprochement between the United States and China – a scenario that has haunted Japanese policymakers since President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to Beijing in . While acknowledging this risk, Walker expressed optimism about Japan’s ability to maintain its global standing, citing its growing soft power and international reputation.
“But I think given the soft power of Japan, given the global standing of Japan, I’m optimistic about the future, even though I’m worried about the geopolitical stability,” he said.
The evolving dynamics within the U.S.-Japan alliance are further complicated by broader shifts in the international order. A recent analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlights the transformation of South Korean progressive foreign policy, adding another layer of complexity to regional alliances. Simultaneously, a fracturing of the U.S.-Europe-Japan order, as noted in commentary from the Japan Times, is forcing Japan to navigate divergent strategic priorities among its key partners.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration, which entered office amid this period of global realignment, is attempting to balance economic security goals with the increasingly disparate approaches of the United States and Europe. The situation, according to the Japan Times report, places longstanding frameworks like the Group of Seven at an “unprecedented crossroads.”
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has observed that Japan has largely accommodated U.S. Demands while attempting to safeguard its own national interests. However, recent changes in U.S. Foreign policy have raised concerns in Tokyo regarding the reliability of Washington as a partner. This sentiment underscores the urgency of the alliance’s re-evaluation, as both nations seek to adapt to a world characterized by increasing uncertainty and shifting power dynamics.
As the U.S. And Japan navigate this new era, the emphasis on strengthening economic ties, bolstering defense capabilities, and fostering deeper people-to-people connections will be crucial in ensuring the alliance remains a vital force for regional stability and global security. The challenge lies in forging a partnership that is not solely dependent on the personalities of individual leaders, but rather on a shared commitment to mutual interests and a long-term vision for the future.
