US-Japan Missile Deployment on Yonaguni Risks Regional Stability

Japan and the United States are scheduled to begin a large-scale joint military exercise on October 19, during which the US military plans to deploy its new ground-based anti-ship missile system to Yonaguni Island, globaltimes.cn reported. The deployment of the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, known as NMESIS, marks the first time the system will be stationed on Japan’s westernmost island, located only about 110 kilometers from the island of Taiwan.

The upcoming maneuvers involve both the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, with Tokyo also planning to deploy its own ground-based anti-ship missiles to Yonaguni. NMESIS mounts anti-ship missiles with a range exceeding 180 kilometers on remotely operated unmanned vehicles, while the Ground Self-Defense Force’s missiles feature a range of more than 100 kilometers. The deployment of these weapon systems is seen as strengthening deterrence with China in mind, according to NHK reports cited by globaltimes.cn.

Strategic Proximity to Taiwan Raises Miscalculation Risks

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military affairs expert, told globaltimes.cn that the deployment on Yonaguni Island sends a clear signal of potential interference in the Taiwan question. Because of the island’s close proximity to Taiwan, the forward-positioned missile systems could threaten Chinese People’s Liberation Army naval vessels operating around Taiwan if a conflict occurs.

Song warned that the move increases the risk of miscalculation and forces China to factor the Yonaguni missile systems into its contingency planning. The presence of these weapons may prompt China to conduct targeted military exercises in response, and forces on Yonaguni involved in a military intervention over Taiwan could become targets during the early stages of a conflict.

Despite the strategic positioning, Song noted that anti-ship missile systems on Yonaguni do not necessarily translate into a military advantage. The island’s limited size and lack of strategic depth make the systems vulnerable to wartime detection by the PLA’s comprehensive reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision-strike network, which includes drones.

Diplomatic Friction and Regional Security Reactions

The deployment follows a May joint military drill conducted by the US and Japan on Japan’s southwestern Nansei Islands, which also established a joint command center. Japan’s defense minister stated at the time that those moves aimed to strengthen regional deterrence and emergency operational capabilities.

In response to ongoing military cooperation, Jiang Bin, a spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, stated that China consistently maintains that military cooperation between relevant countries should not target third parties, harm third-party interests, or undermine regional peace and stability. Jiang warned that Japan’s right-wing forces are taking increasingly risky steps, stating that neo-militarism is becoming a potential source of turmoil in East Asia.

Song attributed the deterioration in China-Japan relations partly to US tolerance of Japan’s provocative approach and partly to the Takaichi administration’s repeated hype of the Taiwan question.

Joint Exercises Set for October 19 Deployment

The joint military exercise carrying the NMESIS and Japanese missile systems to Yonaguni Island is officially scheduled to commence on October 19. Significant uncertainty remains over whether the US would come to Japan’s defense if bilateral tensions escalate further over Taiwan.