US Missile Stockpile Depleted by Iran Strikes—Experts Warn of Global Risks

U.S. Missile Stockpiles Severely Depleted After Iran Conflict, Raising Concerns Over Future Defense Capabilities

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Military has exhausted nearly half of its critical missile stockpiles during its seven-week conflict with Iran, creating a “near-term risk” of insufficient ammunition for a potential future war, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The depletion of key missile systems has raised alarms among defense experts about the United States’ preparedness to confront a near-peer adversary, such as China, in the coming years.

Critical Missile Systems Drained

The CSIS report, authored by retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian and CSIS research associate Chris Park, reveals that the U.S. Has expended at least 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), 50% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors and nearly half of its Patriot air defense interceptor missiles since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026. These figures align with classified Pentagon data on U.S. Stockpiles, according to sources familiar with internal Defense Department assessments.

The rapid depletion of these missile systems has left U.S. Stockpiles at levels insufficient to sustain a prolonged conflict with a capable adversary. “The diminished munitions stockpiles have created a near-term risk,” the CSIS report states. “A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates than in this war. Prewar inventories were already insufficient; the levels today will constrain U.S. Operations should a future conflict arise.”

Production and Replenishment Challenges

While the U.S. Currently maintains enough missiles to continue operations against Iran, replenishing these stockpiles will take years. The Pentagon has signed contracts with defense firms to accelerate production, including a $500 million multiyear investment in Honeywell Aerospace to surge production of critical missile components. However, even with increased capacity, the delivery timeline for replacing these systems is estimated at three to five years, according to CSIS experts and Pentagon sources.

President Donald Trump has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027, described by the Pentagon as the largest year-over-year increase in defense spending since World War II. Despite these efforts, the current depletion of missile stockpiles highlights long-term vulnerabilities in U.S. Defense readiness.

Implications for Regional Security

The strain on U.S. Missile supplies has raised concerns about the country’s ability to support allies in the event of a broader conflict. Analysts warn that the depletion of stockpiles could leave partners such as Taiwan more vulnerable, particularly if tensions escalate in the Pacific. “The major risk is not that we’re going to run out for this war, but that the inventories are inadequate for a possible conflict with China,” Cancian noted in the CSIS report.

The first 16 days of the Iran conflict alone saw the U.S. Expend over 6,000 defensive and offensive munitions, including nearly 46% of its Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and PrSM stockpiles, as well as nearly 40% of its THAAD interceptors. The conflict also consumed approximately $1.9 billion worth of Tomahawk missiles, nearly a fifth of the U.S. Supply. At the rate of expenditure observed in the early stages of the war, these stockpiles would have been depleted within a month.

Expert Warnings and Strategic Risks

Defense experts emphasize that the current stockpile levels pose a significant strategic risk. While the U.S. Can sustain its operations in the Iran conflict, the ability to respond to a simultaneous or subsequent crisis elsewhere is now in question. The CSIS analysis underscores that prewar inventories were already considered inadequate for a high-intensity conflict, and the current depletion further exacerbates this vulnerability.

In response to the crisis, the Pentagon has prioritized the replenishment of these critical systems. However, the timeline for restoring stockpiles to pre-war levels remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from one to four years. This delay could have far-reaching consequences for U.S. Military strategy and its ability to deter potential adversaries in the near term.

Global Reactions and Diplomatic Tensions

The depletion of U.S. Missile stockpiles has drawn international attention, with analysts warning that the situation could embolden adversaries or create instability in regions reliant on U.S. Military support. The conflict with Iran has already strained diplomatic relations, and the current munitions crisis adds another layer of complexity to global security dynamics.

As the U.S. Works to rebuild its missile inventories, the focus remains on balancing immediate operational needs with long-term strategic preparedness. The outcome of these efforts will likely shape the country’s defense posture for years to come.