Washington: The future of a cornerstone of the AUKUS security pact – the potential sale of Virginia-class nuclear submarines from the United States to Australia – appears increasingly uncertain, even as the US Navy signals a potential shift in its long-term fleet strategy that could, paradoxically, ease the path for such a transfer. Recent reports suggest the US may reconsider its commitment to provide Australia with these submarines, prioritizing their retention for potential contingencies in the Indo-Pacific, particularly concerning Taiwan.
A new report from the US Congressional Research Service, cited in recent coverage, reveals the US Navy is contemplating reducing its target number of attack submarines from 66 to 54. This potential downsizing, driven by “fiscal, industrial and operational realities” according to Chief of Naval Operations Daryl Caudle, could lessen the pressure on the US to part with Virginia-class vessels, making them more readily available for the AUKUS agreement. However, this shift comes amid ongoing concerns about the capacity of the US shipbuilding industry to meet current demands, let alone fulfill the commitments outlined in the AUKUS pact.
The AUKUS agreement, announced in 2021, aims to provide Australia with a fleet of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines. The initial plan involved the potential sale of three to five Virginia-class submarines, with deliveries slated to begin in the early 2030s. However, the logistical and industrial challenges associated with this transfer have prompted debate and scrutiny, both within Australia and the United States.
Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has publicly criticized the government’s handling of the AUKUS deal, accusing it of being “engaged in an exercise of denial” regarding the difficulties of securing the submarines. Senator David Shoebridge of the Greens party has described the agreement as a “pantomime,” arguing it is heavily skewed in favor of the United States. These criticisms highlight a growing sense of unease in Australia about the viability of the original AUKUS plan.
The US Navy’s evolving strategy, dubbed a “hedge strategy,” reflects a move away from reliance on large aircraft carrier strike groups towards more flexible and adaptable fleets. This shift is partly a response to budgetary constraints and industrial limitations, but also acknowledges the changing nature of modern warfare. The potential reduction in the number of Virginia-class submarines is directly linked to this new approach, as the Navy explores alternative technologies, including larger-diameter submarines and unmanned vessels.
Bryan Clark, director of the Centre for Defence Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, explained that the impact of the AUKUS submarine deal on the US submarine inventory is “decreasing over time.” He noted that the Navy’s long-term need for Virginia-class submarines is diminishing as it pursues new technologies and adjusts its strategic priorities. This suggests that the US may be more willing to “spare” some submarines for Australia, but it does not guarantee the successful completion of the original AUKUS plan.
The industrial capacity of the US shipbuilding industry remains a critical hurdle. While Huntington Ingalls Industries recently reported a 14 percent increase in productivity, the overall rate of submarine production still falls short of the levels required to meet both US needs and the AUKUS commitments. The US Navy needs to double its current production rate to fulfill its obligations, a challenge that has prompted concern within the Pentagon.
Adding to the complexity, the United States is also considering establishing a more permanent naval presence in Australia. Australian officials are preparing for a US request to secure long-term access to HMAS Stirling, a major naval base near Perth, as part of a review of the AUKUS agreement. This move would allow the US to rotate up to four nuclear-powered submarines through Western Australia from 2027, bolstering its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and potentially signaling a long-term commitment to the region. Approximately 1000 American troops and their families are expected to be stationed in Perth to support this initiative.
The Pentagon’s review, led by senior official Elbridge Colby, aims to clarify ambiguities in the original AUKUS plan and ensure the agreement aligns with US strategic interests. While President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his support for AUKUS, the review suggests potential adjustments to the original framework. The question of whether the US will ultimately sell Virginia-class submarines to Australia, or opt for an alternative arrangement, remains unanswered.
Under AUKUS legislation, the US President must certify that any transfer of submarines to Australia will not compromise US undersea capabilities. This requirement underscores the strategic sensitivity of the agreement and the importance of maintaining a robust US submarine fleet. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of AUKUS and the extent to which the United States is willing to fulfill its commitments to Australia.
The evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific, particularly the rising tensions surrounding Taiwan, continues to shape the debate surrounding AUKUS. The US Navy’s strategic adjustments and industrial challenges are intertwined with broader concerns about maintaining a credible deterrent in the region. The AUKUS agreement, initially conceived as a means of bolstering Australia’s defense capabilities, has become a focal point in the broader strategic competition between the United States and China.
