US Panama Invasion Venezuela: Repeating History?
- Published December 6, 2023 (Updated from original source date)
- In 1989, Panama was governed by dictator Manuel Noriega, who solidified his power following widely disputed elections.
- The invasion led to Noriega's capture and the subsequent establishment of a democratic government in Panama.
Venezuela and Panama: Echoes of Intervention?
Table of Contents
Published December 6, 2023 (Updated from original source date)
Past Parallels: Panama Under Noriega
In 1989, Panama was governed by dictator Manuel Noriega, who solidified his power following widely disputed elections. Noriega faced accusations from the United States of involvement in drug trafficking. In response, U.S. President George H.W. Bush authorized a military invasion of Panama in December 1989, stating, “I have ordered the United States military forces to Panama. No president would take that action lightly.” President Bush’s address to the nation outlined the rationale for the intervention.
The invasion led to Noriega’s capture and the subsequent establishment of a democratic government in Panama.
Venezuela Under Maduro: Similarities and Concerns
Today, Venezuela is led by Nicolás Maduro, whose victory in the 2024 elections is contested and lacks clarity, as he has not publicly released the election minutes. According to Cadena SER, concerns are rising about the legitimacy of the election.
Like Noriega, maduro has been accused by the United States of drug trafficking. The Trump management specifically labeled Maduro as the leader of the “Cartel of the Suns,” a Venezuelan military-linked drug trafficking institution. Reuters reported on the U.S. indictment of Maduro and other Venezuelan officials in March 2020.
In response to the situation, the Trump administration deployed 15% of the U.S. Navy to the Caribbean, signaling a potential for military intervention.
Why an Invasion of Venezuela is Considered unlikely
Despite the parallels with Panama, many experts believe a full-scale invasion of Venezuela is unlikely. Venezuela maintains strong ties with Russia and China, which coudl escalate international tensions substantially. Carlos Malamud, a researcher at the El Cano Institute, notes that domestic U.S. political opposition would also be ample. El Cano Institute analysis highlights the complexities of intervention.
Moreover,current American public opinion and the U.S.Congress are unlikely to support a military intervention, according to experts.
Current U.S. Strategy and Rising Tensions
Despite a reported “respectful” conversation between Trump and Maduro in November, tensions remain high.The United States continues to conduct extrajudicial operations targeting alleged drug smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific,resulting in over 80 reported deaths. This ongoing activity underscores the continued pressure from the U.S. government.