Venezuelan Oil: US-China-Russia Trade Dynamics
- On 3 January 2026, the US carried out a surprise military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
- Attention is fixed not only on Washington's plans for Venezuela's oil sector and control over its export revenues, but also on the replies from Moscow and Beijing, Maduro's...
- A straightforward constructivist interpretation of the US-China-Russia triangle centres on status.
On 3 January 2026, the US carried out a surprise military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The US has made little effort to cloak its operation in either solidarist language, such as appeals to democracy promotion, human rights, or liberal peacebuilding – or in pluralist rhetoric emphasizing the preservation of international order. Instead, Washington has presented the action in largely instrumental and strategic terms, signalling a willingness to sidestep both dominant justificatory traditions within international society. While Maduro and Flores are charged with narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, international debates focus on the future of Venezuela’s oil (Poque González 2026). On 7 January governance officials said the US plans to effectively assume control over the sale of Venezuela’s oil “indefinitely” (Sherman 2026) and President Donald Trump confirmed that he expected the US to run Venezuela, insisting that the country’s interim government was ”giving us everything that we feel is necessary” (Sanger et al. 2026).
Attention is fixed not only on Washington’s plans for Venezuela’s oil sector and control over its export revenues, but also on the replies from Moscow and Beijing, Maduro’s chief foreign backers and heavyweight players in energy politics. Consequently, this article asks two questions. First, to what extent does american control of Venezuelan oil threaten China’s and Russia’s energy interests? Second, what does the resulting US-China-Russia triangle imply for how energy security itself is being redefined? A constructivist perspective, recognizes that oil is an idea-valuable not only because it burns but because control over it symbolizes power and authority (Kuteleva 2021). Thus, when the US claims the right to supervise Venezuelan oil revenues, it is not only increasing leverage over barrels, but asserting the authority to define legitimate energy exchange itself. In this context,while the material threat is limited for China and already largely sunk for Russia,the symbolic,institutional and political threat is profound.
A straightforward constructivist interpretation of the US-China-Russia triangle centres on status. China had cultivated Venezuela as an “all-weather strategic partnership” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC 2025b) and major debtor, only to watch Maduro captured days after senior Chinese officials visited Caracas (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC 2025a). In constructivist terms, this is an obvious status injury: China appeared present but powerless. China’s energy diplomacy had functioned as proof of its global influence, and the nullification of china’s energy ties with Venezuela by US force undermines china’s narrative as a protective patron for the global South. beijing accused Washington of “hegemonic thinking” (liu and Chen 2026), “bullying” (Global Times 2026a), and violating Venezuelan sovereignty and “the rights of the Venezuelan people” (Global Times 2026b). This strong pluralist language is not incidental-it is a bid to reclaim moral authority and redefine the event as norm-breaking rather than capability-revealing.
Similarly, Russia’s involvement in Venezuela was never purely economic. Moscow saw the alliance with Venezuela as a way to advance its anti-American agenda and to signal that it could cultivate allies in Washington’s traditional backyard (Boersner Herrera and Haluani 2023; Gratius 2022; Herbst and Marczak 2019).It used Venezuela as leverage against the US, subsidised the regime during periods of domestic recession, and framed support as proof of great-power reliability.As senior Russian executives put it, “economic considerations took a back seat to political goals of taking swipes at the US” (Seddon and Stognei 2026).
US control of Venezuelan oil thus removes a symbolic platform on which Russia enacted its identity as an energy superpower and geopolitical spoiler. While Russia continues loud sovereignty talk, its demonstrated incapacity to protect partners pushes it toward opportunistic bargaining (“concert” deals, see lemke 2023) rather than overt defense of UN-pluralist restraint. As such, Dmitry Medvedev (2026) bluntly claimed that the US special military operation in ven
china and the U.S. Vie for Influence Over Venezuela’s Oil
The Biden administration’s recent move to potentially lift sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry is sparking concern in beijing, as China seeks to maintain its growing energy partnership with the South American nation. The U.S. is reportedly demanding Venezuela increase oil production and partner exclusively with American companies, a move China has condemned as “bullying” and a breach of international law, according to the global Times.
This development comes as Donald Trump indicated U.S.oversight of Venezuela could last for years, as reported by The New York Times. Experts suggest the U.S.claims of an “anti-drug” operation are a pretext for reasserting influence over Venezuela’s oil reserves, echoing a pattern of neo-colonialism, according to the Global Times.
China’s Interests
- China has considerably increased its oil imports from Venezuela in recent years, notably through self-reliant refineries, as detailed in a 2017 report by columbia University.
- Beijing views access to Venezuelan oil as crucial for its energy security, as outlined in a 2025 Columbia University study.
- In May 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, signaling a strengthening bilateral relationship, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC.
- China’s Foreign Ministry has stated its legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be safeguarded,as reported by the Global times.
Russia’s Role and U.S. Strategy
Russia has also been a key player in Venezuela’s oil sector, but its involvement has faced challenges, as noted by the Financial Times. The U.S. is attempting to leverage its influence to counter both Russian and Chinese interests in the region, according to a 2019 report by the Atlantic Council. This strategy aligns with a broader effort to revive U.S. hard power in Latin America, as argued in a recent analysis by E-International Relations.
Geopolitical implications
The situation highlights the growing competition between the U.S. and China for access to vital resources and geopolitical influence. Dmitry medvedev, Deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, criticized the U.S. actions on telegram, according to his official Telegram channel. The U.S. is also tracking oil tankers with links to Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, as reported by the Financial Times, further illustrating the complex web of international interests at play.