Virginia Primary: Trump’s Influence & 2024 Races
- Virginia's primary contests on Tuesday mark the unofficial start to the general election season, with the November results viewed as a key indicator of President Donald Trump's performance...
- Dave Richards, political science chair at the University of Lynchburg, said, "Trump is going to play a role in this race." Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal...
- The Democratic Party highlighted the high level of early voting, noting that over 189,000 Virginians had already cast their ballots before primary day.
Virginia’s primary election serves as a critical test of President Trump’s influence and potential for midterm shifts, making it an early referendum on his presidency. News Directory 3 explores how the state’s gubernatorial race, featuring candidates like Winsome Earle-Sears and Abigail Spanberger, may foreshadow the 2026 midterm elections and the impact of federal policies on Northern Virginia. Discover what’s next for the Republican and Democratic parties.
virginia Primary Seen as Referendum on Trump Presidency
Updated June 17, 2025
Virginia’s primary contests on Tuesday mark the unofficial start to the general election season, with the November results viewed as a key indicator of President Donald Trump’s performance in office.
Dave Richards, political science chair at the University of Lynchburg, said, “Trump is going to play a role in this race.” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, echoed this sentiment, noting, ”I do think Trump matters a lot for the general election.”
The Democratic Party highlighted the high level of early voting, noting that over 189,000 Virginians had already cast their ballots before primary day.
The gubernatorial election will pit Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears against Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. representative.
Northern Virginia feels the impact of the Trump management’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which aims to reduce federal spending and workforce size. Richards pointed out that “the policies of DOGE have hit northern Virginia hard.”
Virginia, along with New jersey, which held its primaries last week, are the only states holding gubernatorial elections the year after a presidential election. These elections are closely watched as indicators of the president’s approval and potential shifts for the 2026 midterm elections, where Republicans will defend their majorities in the House and Senate, and 36 states will elect governors.
Four years ago, Republicans swept the Virginia elections for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, ending a 12-year losing streak. While the state has not voted for a Republican in a presidential contest since 2004,Trump narrowed the gap in the last election,losing by only six points.
Historical trends present a challenge for Republicans, as the party holding the White House has lost Virginia’s gubernatorial election in all but one instance since 1977.
What’s next
The Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races will be closely watched for signs of voter sentiment heading into the midterm elections.