VN-Index on the Brink: Will it Rebound to 1,240-1,250 Range

VN-Index on the Brink: Will it Rebound to 1,240-1,250 Range

November 5, 2024 Catherine Williams - Chief Editor Business

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Selling pressure will continue

After 2 consecutive weeks of adjustment, the market had a week of recovery efforts with 3/5 gaining sessions. The VN-Index ended the week increasing by just over 2 points, showing that selling pressure caused many difficulties in recovery efforts. Investor caution caused market liquidity to decline sharply last week. As a result, the market struggled for most of the trading time. The market is having difficulty around the MA100 point threshold, the upward momentum tends to run out of breath due to weak demand. The peak of disappointment was pushed in the last trading session of the week, the market slid nearly 10 points, almost erasing the previous gains. Selling pressure is still “smoldering” while the recovery momentum is not pervasive and does not attract cash flow, causing the market to end the week almost at a standstill. Closing the trading week from October 28 to November 1, the VN-Index closed at 1,254.89 points +2.17 points (+0.17%).

Market liquidity hit its bottom in early September, down -22.3% compared to the 20-week trading average. Accumulated to the end of the trading week, the average trading liquidity on the HSX reached 575 million shares (-3.67%), equivalent to 15,024 billion VND (-2.51%) in trading value.

Closing the trading week from October 28 to November 1, the VN-Index closed at 1,254.89 points +2.17 points

Market openness regained green with 13/21 industry groups increasing, mainly contributed by Midcap stocks. Leading the market’s recovery last week were industry groups such as: Telecommunications Technology (+2.3%), Chemicals (+1.75%), Seaports (+1.34%), Marine real estate (+1.31%),…In the opposite direction, selling pressure still casts a shadow over some industry groups: Consumer goods (-5.09%), residential real estate (-1.90%) , Oil and Gas (+1.30%),…

According to experts from Kien Thiet Securities Company (CSI), the weekend trading day had increased order-matching liquidity, the highest in 5 trading sessions, plus a deep decrease in points, causing VN-Index to close. closed at the lowest level of the day. Besides, the support level “about the GAP gain of the 3rd session of the week” has been broken, showing that negative signals are more dominant. The positive point is that at the end of the week, VN-Index still had a slight green color (+0.17%) and formed the “Harami Cross” pattern, showing that the selling pressure of the previous week had leveled off. However, the matched volume on the HSX in today’s rising week decreased compared to the previous week (-19.9%) and the liquidity of the rising sessions of the week was not high, lower than the falling sessions. Therefore, the slowing selling pressure from the signal of the “Harami Cross” candlestick pattern is unconvincing.

“Selling pressure will continue into the sessions this week, November 4-8, so investors need to continue to be cautious and limit new purchases. We expect the support level around the 1,230 point mark will help VN-Index reverse and increase again,” CSI experts stated.

VN-Index may retest the 1,240 – 1,250 point range

According to the analysis team of ASEAN Securities Company (ASEANSC), the stock fund structure deadline session decreased in the afternoon session although the index fluctuated and narrowed the decline in the ATC session. The net withdrawal in stock groups such as Retail, Real Estate, Banking, and Securities created a gloomy sentiment. With the closing closing the price gap during the week, the index shows that the process of forming the equilibrium zone needs to last longer. The market tends to continue to shake and consolidate the balance level of 1,258 points last week. Exchange rate movements have slowed down in the last three sessions and the SBV’s net withdrawal has cooled down significantly compared to the previous period of pressure, helping the general sentiment become more positive.

VN-Index may retest the 1,240 – 1,250 point area (Illustration: KT)

“Investors still need to closely monitor further developments in exchange rates and SBV’s actions on interbank market liquidity to shape market trends more clearly. On the other hand, the October PMI Index exceeded the threshold of 50, helping to increase expectations for the economy in the last months of the year. We maintain a positive assessment of the medium and long-term market prospects, focusing on stocks with good fundamentals and positive third-quarter business results, waiting for disbursement when signs confirm export balance. present and price at an attractive level”, ASEANSC experts commented.

Meanwhile, experts from Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company (YSVN) said that the market may continue to decline in the first sessions of the week and the VN-Index may retest the 1,240 – 1,250 points. At the same time, short-term risks show signs of increasing again, indicating that the recent recovery sessions may fail and the possibility that the indexes may find an equilibrium zone at a lower level. The market may experience strong fluctuations when the results of the US election are received next week and world stock indexes are also showing that investors are concerned about the short-term trend of the stock market. during this period. In addition, the short-term sentiment indicator decreased slightly, showing that investors are not too pessimistic about current market developments.

“The short-term trend of the general market still remains at a downward level. Therefore, investors can continue to hold a low stock proportion of 30-40% of their short-term portfolio and temporarily stop buying new short-term shares to wait for more declines in the coming sessions. The medium-term trend of the general market still remains at an upward level. Therefore, investors can continue to hold a high proportion of stocks in the medium and long-term portfolio,” YSVN experts recommended.