War Zone Reality Check: Why Charging into Battle is No Cakewalk
Israel’s Multi-Region Conflict: Where Does the Road Lead?
By Avi Ashkenazi
Israel has been embroiled in a complex conflict spanning Gaza, Beirut, Tehran, and Hodeidah for almost a year. The question on everyone’s mind is: what’s the endgame? Politically, it appears that the goal is to implement a reversal of the multi-region conflict, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aiming to hold a cabinet meeting and announce the return of northern residents to their homes.
The recent Iranian missile fired into Israel by the Houthis has sent shockwaves through the country. Although the missile was intercepted by the Air Force, it has created a sense of urgency. The Prime Minister has issued a threat to Yemen, which will not go unnoticed. This comes at a time when the North is waiting for a change in reality, a ceasefire, and the government’s abandonment of the region to return.
The “Iron Sword” war was imposed on Israel, with the government deciding that the Gaza Strip was the main arena and the North a secondary one. However, the war’s objectives have become unclear, and the government’s conduct has been criticized. The aim was to destroy Hamas’s dictatorial and military power and free the hostages, but the war has lost its clear goals.
Israel has reached a turning point. Will it move towards an agreement to free all abducted people and stop the war, or will it continue to sink into the quagmire of Gaza? The government is not creating an authoritarian alternative to Hamas, nor is it building heavy leverage over Hamas that could lead to a ceasefire.
The Israeli army has achieved impressive military successes, but these have not translated into political action. The security services have heard that Netanyahu is not interested in a deal with Hamas. Many members of the security establishment believe that coalition unity is the priority, but time is running out for the hostages.
The Israeli government now wants to change the face of the scene in the north, focusing on Lebanon and Hezbollah. This means that the abductees remain in Gaza, and the mission remains open. The Northern Command is fighting an impressive defensive war, systematically hitting Hezbollah. However, the Israeli government must conduct real strategic research, press for the closure of the Gaza Strip, and release the abducted persons before calculating the operation in Lebanon and forming an international coalition against Iran.