West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Assam Assembly Elections 2026

As India awaits the official results of the 2026 assembly elections, exit poll data suggests a complex landscape for sitting Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) across West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Assam. While some incumbents appear secure, others face a volatile environment characterized by tight contests and potential shifts in power.

West Bengal: A Knife-Edge Battle

West Bengal remains the most contested region, with pollsters describing the situation as a knife-edge battle. Several exit polls indicate a tight race, with some projections giving a slight edge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the Trinamool Congress (TMC).

The vulnerability of sitting MLAs in Bengal is high due to the narrow margins predicted. While some TMC leaders, such as Saugata Roy, have claimed that voter turnout favors the Trinamool Congress, other data points toward a split verdict or a narrow lead for the NDA. This volatility suggests that a significant number of incumbents may struggle to retain their seats as the state’s political equation shifts.

Kerala: Potential Change in Guard

In Kerala, the political climate suggests a potential transition. Multiple exit polls indicate that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is leading, posing a direct threat to the sitting MLAs of the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

Reporting indicates that while the contest remains close between the UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF, the UDF is widely seen as likely to make a comeback. For incumbent MLAs in Kerala, this trend signals a high risk of displacement, particularly in constituencies where the UDF has consolidated its support.

Tamil Nadu and Assam: Incumbent Stability

The outlook for sitting MLAs in Tamil Nadu and Assam appears more stable compared to the volatility in Bengal and Kerala. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led government is projected by most pollsters to retain its position, suggesting that many of its incumbents may secure their seats.

Similarly, in Assam, the BJP-led NDA is expected to maintain its dominance. Exit polls project a return to power for the government led by Himanta Biswa Sarma, indicating a likely sweep for the NDA and a high survival rate for its sitting MLAs.

Summary of Exit Poll Projections

• West Bengal: High vulnerability for incumbents; a tight contest with an edge for the BJP in several projections.
• Kerala: Significant risk for LDF incumbents; UDF is projected to lead.
• Tamil Nadu: Relative stability for the DMK government.
• Assam: Strong stability for the BJP-led NDA.

Official results are expected on May 4, 2026, which will determine whether these projections translate into actual seat wins or if the incumbents can defy the pollsters’ trends.