Western Conference Dark Horse: Which Team is Poised for a Breakout Season
Western Conference Teams Poised for a Big Leap in the 2024-2025 NBA Season
Every NBA season, a few teams defy expectations and make big moves up the rankings. The Western Conference is about to undergo some changes this year, and some teams are ready to make a move up the rankings.
Which Teams Are Expected to Have the Biggest Win Gains in the Western Conference This Season?
Honorable Mention: Houston Rockets
The Rockets made a big leap last year, going from 22 wins to .500 in 2022-23, but they may need another leap if they want to make the postseason in 2024-25. Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have shown solid development, but it’s too early to expect either player to reach elite status and lead the Rockets to the playoffs next season.
3rd Place: Dallas Mavericks
Thanks to the trades for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, the Dallas Mavericks finished fourth in the NBA with an 18-9 record after the All-Star break. The Mavericks’ late-season surge continued into the postseason, where they beat three good teams in the Clippers, Thunder, and Timberwolves to reach the NBA Finals before ultimately falling to the dominant Celtics.
In the playoffs, Luka Doncic (28.9 PPG) and Kyrie Irving (22.1 PPG) formed one of the most potent offensive backcourts in NBA history, while Washington maintained its playoff berth with a superb defense. The Mavericks’ defense allowed 4.4% lower than the typical shooting average. Gafford provided solid rim protection, limiting opposing offenses to a 59.1% restricted area shooting rate.
With the same core players returning and the addition of shooter Klay Thompson, the Mavericks have all the makings to surpass a 50-32 record in 2023-24 and make a serious push for the Western Conference’s top seed.
Prediction: The Mavericks are projected to go 57-25, with a seven-game lead.
2nd Place: San Antonio Spurs
Last season, the Spurs finished 14th in the West with a 22-60 record, but they showed noticeable improvement after coach Gregg Popovich put Tre Jones in the starting lineup. The Spurs’ most effective 5-man lineups, featuring Jones, Devin Vassell, and Victor Wembanyama, showed promise for the future.
The Spurs further strengthened their roster by adding 12-time All-Star Chris Paul while drafting Stefon Castle, who was a key player in UConn’s back-to-back national championships. As for Wembanyama, he’s ready to be a legitimate MVP candidate this year after a tremendous rookie season in which he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game.
Wembanyama is likely to be a top-10 player, and Paul’s veteran leadership will make the Spurs very competitive this season. However, a playoff spot is probably a long shot. The Spurs’ real rise will not happen until the 2025-2026 season.
Prediction: The Spurs are projected to win 12 games and go 34-48.
1st Place: Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies looked poised to make a run for the championship in 2022-23, but Memphis’ momentum was derailed by Ja Morant’s off-court issues. Despite finishing second in the Western Conference with a 51-31 record, the Lakers eliminated them in the first round of the playoffs.
Last season was a total disaster. Morant started the season suspended for 25 games, then suffered a season-ending shoulder injury just nine games in, leaving the Grizzlies at the bottom of the standings.
With Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and a now healthy and motivated Morant, the heart of a Memphis championship-caliber team remains intact. Memphis’ roster is further strengthened with former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart and promising power forward Brandon Clarke returning from injury. With a team that is fully intact for the first time in a year, the Grizzlies have the potential to be the most improved team in the league this season.