|Western Diplomats Wary of Predicting End of Iran’s Regime
Western diplomats are wary of predicting the imminent fall of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, haunted by past intelligence failures. The specter of misreading the signs before the 1979 revolution – and the Shah‘s subsequent overthrow – looms large.
Just before the Shah’s fall in January 1979, Western embassies in Tehran consistently reported the regime’s stability. The US Defence Intelligence Agency predicted in September 1978 that the Shah “is expected to remain actively in power over the next 10 years.” A State Department report even suggested he wouldn’t have to step down until 1985.
Sir Anthony parsons, then the UK ambassador to Iran, echoed this sentiment in a May 1978 message to the Foreign Office: “I do not believe there is a serious risk of an overthrow of the regime while the shah is at the helm.”
Parsons later questioned in a book weather he, as ambassador, could have foreseen the coalition of religious leaders, merchants, and students that ultimately toppled the Shah. He concluded the failure wasn’t due to a lack of details, but a misinterpretation of it.
This history explains the cautious approach of current Western intelligence assessments. Reports now likely begin with caveats and end with questions.
Academic experts, tho, see little evidence of the widespread defections predicted by some, including Reza Pahlavi, the former Shah’s son. Pahlavi initially claimed 50,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers were preparing to desert, a claim he later revised.
Vali nasr, author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, told the Council on Foreign Relations that “There is no sign of any defections from within the regime or that it has in any way fractured.” He added, “I am not certain the balance of forces necessarily lies with the protesters. Crowds win when the other side falls.”
Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the CFR, agreed, stating, ”This is not yet a national movement. There are a lot of fence-sitters trying to figure which way they want to go. They will have to feel some degree of immunity to do as they did in 1978.”