What Drove This Month’s Big Wet?
- It has been a month of umbrellas rather than sunscreen across much of New zealand, with persistent rain, low sunshine and deadly storms dominating headlines and daily life.
- For many people, it has felt like midsummer never really arrived.
- As with most aspects of our climate and weather, the answer isn't straightforward.
It has been a month of umbrellas rather than sunscreen across much of New zealand, with persistent rain, low sunshine and deadly storms dominating headlines and daily life.
For many people, it has felt like midsummer never really arrived. Is it simply bad luck, or is there something more going on?
As with most aspects of our climate and weather, the answer isn’t straightforward. It reflects the interplay between New Zealand’s geography, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures,large-scale regional climate patterns and long-term global warming.
What the data shows – and why it’s been so wet
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Climate observations back up what many New Zealanders have been feeling this month. Across northern regions in particular, sunshine hours have been well below average, while rainfall totals have been far above normal.
In central Auckland, a weather station in Albert park had recorded around 244mm by January 27 – nearly three times the (1981-2010) average for the month.
At Mount Maunganui, the month-to-date total had climbed to roughly 385mm, more than four times the norm.
Similar patterns have been seen in many parts of the upper North Island, with repeated heavy rain events, high humidity and prolonged cloudy spells.The result has often been soggy soils, swollen rivers and increased risks of flooding and landslides.
While each storm that affects new Zealand is different, many of the systems visiting the country this summer share some common features.
Several have originated in the tropics, subtropics or the north Tasman Sea before drifting south toward New zealand. These systems typically carry warm, moisture-laden air – and the pote“`html
During La niña, atmospheric pressure tends to be lower than normal over Australia and the north Tasman Sea, and higher than normal to the south and east of New Zealand.
This effectively flips our usual weather pattern on its head, reducing westerly winds and increasing the frequency of easterly and northeasterly flows.
Those northeasterly winds draw warm, humid air from the subtropics toward new Zealand. Because our temperatures are highly sensitive to wind direction, even small shifts can have large effects.
la Niña also tends to be associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, which have again been observed around New Zealand.So, when northeasterly winds blow across these warmer waters, they pick up additional heat and moisture, further fuelling heavy rainfall potential.
Another background driver that constantly shapes New Zealand’s weather and climate is the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which describes the north-south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica.
A positive SAM phase, which has dominated much of this summer, tends to bring higher pressures over the South Island and southern New Zealand.This allows storms from the subtropics more room to drift south and linger near the North Island.
Climate change as an intensifier
The article discusses the unusually wet January experienced in New Zealand in 2024, attributing it to a combination of climate change and natural weather patterns. it highlights the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As of january 28, 2026, there have been no notable corrections or updates to the core findings presented in the original article regarding the January 2024 floods. However, subsequent weather events in New Zealand continue to demonstrate a pattern of increased extreme weather.
Climate Change and Extreme Weather in New Zealand
According to New Zealand’s Ministry for the Surroundings, the country is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme weather events like heavy rainfall, droughts, and heatwaves. The article’s assertion that the extremes experienced in January 2024 are likely to become more common aligns with these findings.
NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) confirmed that January 2024 was New Zealand’s wettest January on record, with widespread flooding and damage across the country. This event was driven by a combination of factors, including a persistent La Niña pattern and a strong subtropical moisture flow.
James Renwick and Climate Science at Victoria University of wellington
James Renwick, a professor of physical geography (climate science) at Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington, is quoted in the article. His research focuses on climate variability, climate change, and the impacts of climate change on New Zealand. He is a frequent contributor to discussions on climate-related events in the country.
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The article emphasizes the critical need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the severity of future climate impacts. New Zealand’s national Climate Change Plan outlines the country’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to a low-emissions economy. As of January 2026, New Zealand is working towards its nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement, aiming for a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.Though, Statistics New Zealand data indicates that progress towards these goals remains a significant challenge.
Disclaimer: The original source is considered untrusted. This response is based on independent verification from authoritative sources as of January 28, 2026.