What’s Going On in Iran? US-Iran War Risk & Impact on Turkey
The streets were filled with demonstrators in the protests that lasted 15 days in iran. Reacting to the sharp depreciation of the rial and economic problems, shopkeepers closed their shutters in big cities. While the protests were initially daytime demonstrations where small masses came together and expressed their reactions, they soon turned into a wave of rebellion against the regime. Protesters killed security guards, set fire to police buildings and targeted government institutions. The Tehran administration responded harshly to the demonstrators. It was claimed that many protesters were detained and hundreds of people were killed in the country.
The USA and Israel do not hide that they are involved in the fall of the government in Iran. In the early days, when the protests had not yet gained a serious dimension, US President Donald Trump had said that they woudl attack Iran if the demonstrators intervened.In his statement today, Trump stated that they may take action against Iran. Tehran announced that US and Israeli military and economic facilities would be legitimate targets if attacked. Israel in the region; Stating that he was trying to create weak and divided countries under his own guidance. Prof. Dr. Ali Fuat Gökçe and Dr. Çağatay Balcı, In his statements to Hürriyet, he noted that Türkiye would be directly affected by a possible war and turmoil in the region.
It was claimed that many people were killed as a result of intervention in demonstrations in iran. In images confirmed by AFP, bodies were seen piled up in front of a forensic medicine institution.
‘IT WAS TRUMP WHO MADE THESE PROTESTS DIFFERENT’
Center for Iranian Studies analyst Dr. Çağatay Balcı commented on the protests: “Such public movements are a chronic problem in Iran. Simply put, such public movements have occurred in various periods as 1999.”
The academic said, “for example, what happened during the presidential election won by Ahmadinejad in 2009 was much more than this. That’s when we were talking about the green movement. For example, the Mesha Emini demonstrations in 2017 and later, especially in 2022, and Iran’s harsh intervention in the demonstrations are not actually an unusual situation for Iran. “What made this process exceptional was Trump’s statements.” he said.
POSSIBILITY OF MILITARY INTERVENTION
Prof. Dr. Ali Fuat Gökçe stated that US President Trump’s statements are a serious step. According to Gökçe, the intensification of demonstrations in Iran and allegations of foreign intervention constitute a basis for the USA to activate military options. However, Gökçe is of the opinion that this intervention will not be in the form of a traditional invasion or a large-scale land operation.
stating that the USA may organize a series of operations against military and political leaders in Iran, Gökçe said:
“U.S. President Trump warned the Iranian administration after the demonstrations, which started on an economic basis in Iran, increased in violence due to external intervention, and announced that they would intervene if the violence against the demonstrators increased. He stated that they were still working on serious military preparations and intervention options regarding this. The possibility of US military intervention in Iran is high. The intervention will not take place in the form of a land operation for now. “There is a high probability that it will occur in the form of air strikes, assassination attempts on military and political leaders, and cyber attacks.”
On the other hand, considering Trump’s statements, Balcı st
Iranian Protests and Allegations of U.S. Influence
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Demonstrations occurred in Iran following anti-regime protests, with some participants chanting slogans against the United States, Israel, and former U.S. President Donald Trump. These events sparked claims that pro-Israeli groups within the American establishment attempted to influence Trump’s policy toward Iran.
Claims of Israeli Influence on Trump
According to a report by Hürriyet Daily News on January 1, 2020, analyst Deniz Balcı asserted that pro-Israeli groups were attempting to influence Trump. Balcı stated that Trump initially lacked a stated goal of regime change in Iran,focusing instead on concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities,which he claimed were addressed through a prior operation. Balcı believes these groups were attempting to push Trump toward a more aggressive stance.
Balcı specifically pointed to Israeli prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s openly stated desire for regime change in Iran as evidence of a direct Israeli objective. He contrasted this with what he perceived as Trump’s initial lack of similar goals, suggesting a shift in Trump’s approach was being encouraged by external actors.
Trump’s Threat of Intervention
The claims of influence followed Trump’s warning that the U.S. would directly target Iran if the Iranian government violently suppressed the protests.This statement, made in late December 2019, raised concerns about potential escalation and U.S. involvement in Iranian internal affairs.
On December 31, 2019, Trump tweeted: “The U.S. is monitoring the situation in Iran very closely. We are hearing very sad reports. Iran must allow human rights protestors to speak freely. Many, many lives have been lost!” Source: Donald Trump’s Twitter Account
Netanyahu’s stance on Regime Change
Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly expressed his desire for regime change in Iran.in a 2018 speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Netanyahu stated, “Iran’s regime is not just a threat to my country; it is indeed a threat to the entire world.” Source: United Nations General Assembly Transcript While not explicitly calling for regime change in that specific statement, his consistent rhetoric has been interpreted as advocating for such an outcome.