White Christmas: Reality vs. Fantasy
- A recent winter storm delivered snow to the Northeast, but don't expect a repeat for the holidays.The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Management (NOAA) indicates...
- A fast-moving winter storm blanketed the Northeast this weekend, bringing the first significant snowfall of the season to major cities like New York city, Boston, and Philadelphia.
- The map from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) doesn't show actual temperatures, but rather the *probability* of temperatures being near-normal (gray), above-normal (red), or below-normal (blue).
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No White Christmas for Most: Forecast Predicts Warm Temperatures
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A recent winter storm delivered snow to the Northeast, but don’t expect a repeat for the holidays.The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Management (NOAA) indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. during Christmas week.
The Weekend Storm: A Brief Respite
A fast-moving winter storm blanketed the Northeast this weekend, bringing the first significant snowfall of the season to major cities like New York city, Boston, and Philadelphia. The storm deposited between 3 and 8 inches of snow across the region, causing travel disruptions and picturesque scenes.
The map from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) doesn’t show actual temperatures, but rather the *probability* of temperatures being near-normal (gray), above-normal (red), or below-normal (blue). The intensity of the colour indicates the confidence level in that prediction; darker shades signify a higher probability.
What the Forecast Means: A warm Christmas Ahead
The CPC forecast, released December 18, 2023, shows a significant tilt towards warmer-than-average conditions for the Christmas week (December 23-29). Over 75% of the contiguous United States is predicted to experience above-normal temperatures. The only areas with a reasonable chance of near-normal or below-normal temperatures are the northernmost regions of the West,Midwest,and Northeast.
This forecast represents a dramatic shift from the early December cold snap that gripped much of the country. A disrupted polar vortex sent Arctic air masses southward, leading to frigid temperatures and a powerful clipper storm. However, atmospheric patterns are now shifting, favoring a warmer flow.
Past Context: december Temperature Trends
While December ofen brings cold temperatures, the U.S. has seen a clear warming trend over the past several decades. According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Data (NCEI), the average December temperature in the contiguous U.S. has increased by approximately 1.5°F since 1901. The five warmest Decembers on record have all occurred since 2015.
| Year | Average December temperature (°F) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 41.2 |
| 2016 | 40.9 |
| 2019 | 40.7 |
| 2021 | 40.6 |
| 2022 | 40.3 |
Source: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)