Who Is Really Running Iran? The Search for a Bold Leader to Force Change

Iran is facing a severe leadership vacuum following a series of U.S. And Israeli strikes that have killed the country’s veteran supreme leader and a significant portion of its military and intelligence command. The ruling system has attempted to maintain its stability, but the deaths of multiple top figures have left the Islamic Republic’s governance in a state of uncertainty.

The crisis began on February 28, 2026, when Israeli missiles reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to reporting from the New York Post, the strikes were launched from space. The attack also resulted in the deaths of Khamenei’s wife and son.

The Collapse of the Old Guard

Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani, the head of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, became the de facto head of the regime. However, Larijani’s tenure lasted only 17 days. On March 17, 2026, Larijani was killed in a targeted Israeli airstrike.

The strike on March 17 also eliminated the head of the Basij militia unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These losses are part of a broader campaign of attrition against Iran’s leadership. Other high-ranking officials killed during the conflict include the commander of the IRGC, the defense minister, the intelligence chief, and the head of Iran’s National Defense Council.

Uncertainty Over the New Supreme Leader

In the wake of the initial strikes, Iranian clerics elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late supreme leader, as the new supreme leader. However, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public since the February 28 strike that killed his father, wife, and son.

The status of the new supreme leader remains unconfirmed. President Donald Trump has stated that he is unsure whether Mojtaba Khamenei is still alive, and CBN News reports that the leader is reportedly out of commission.

With the official head of state missing from public view, observers suggest that power has shifted toward hardline IRGC commanders. Experts told the New York Post that these commanders are likely to select replacements who embrace further militarization and radical action. Sadiq Larijani, the brother of the late Ali Larijani, has been identified as a favorite to lead the country while Mojtaba Khamenei remains hidden.

He might be a candidate because the IRGC would want a hardliner. They need someone who will go with them, who will move with them, who will collaborate with them.

Yigal Carmon, president of the Middle East Media Research Institute

Diplomatic Rumors and Strategic Objectives

Amid the internal chaos, President Trump has claimed to be in talks with a top Iranian official. This led to reports that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the hardline speaker of Iran’s parliament, may be negotiating with the United States. However, Ghalibaf has denied that he is talking to the U.S. Government.

Military analysts suggest that the U.S. And Israel are seeking a specific type of leadership change within Iran to force a resolution to the conflict. Doran Kempel, a former deputy commander of Sayeret Matkal, Israel’s top special forces unit, stated that there is hope for a friendly general from the IRGC to seize power.

Kempel explained that the strategy involves demolishing military infrastructure to weaken the IRGC, allowing a general who may already have a relationship with the CIA or Mossad to step forward and lead an uprising. He estimated that this transition could potentially occur within a few weeks.

If such a revolution does not occur, Kempel noted that another option involves using massive airpower to break Iran into smaller parts, which would effectively destroy the national economy for 30 to 50 years. He identified attacks on the power grid or oil supply as the most damaging options for the Iranian people.

The current tension is further heightened by a deadline set by President Trump, who has given Iran ten additional days to fully open the Strait of Hormuz.