Why Putin Cannot Simply End the War in Ukraine

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A commentary by Sasha Mitrofanova examines the complexities preventing Russian President Vladimir Putin from unilaterally ending the war in Ukraine, highlighting strategic, political, and military factors. The analysis, published by Novinky and featured in Zprávy Google, underscores the multifaceted challenges facing Moscow’s leadership.

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Strategic Constraints on Putin’s Decision-Making
Mitrofanova argues that Putin’s ability to halt the conflict is constrained by the war’s geopolitical stakes. She notes that Russia’s invasion, launched in February 2022, was framed as a “special military operation” to protect Russian-speaking populations and counter NATO expansion. However, the prolonged conflict has transformed into a protracted struggle, with no clear path to a decisive victory. “Putin cannot afford to withdraw without securing strategic gains,” Mitrofanova states, citing the loss of territorial objectives and the risk of domestic unrest.

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The commentator points to the Ukrainian military’s resilience, bolstered by Western arms shipments, as a key obstacle. According to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Ukraine received over $50 billion in military aid from the U.S. and European allies by 2023. This support has enabled Kyiv to reclaim significant territories, complicating Moscow’s efforts to achieve a negotiated settlement. Mitrofanova adds that Putin’s reliance on a “victory narrative” to maintain domestic legitimacy further restricts his options. “A premature withdrawal would undermine his authority and embolden opposition forces,” she writes.

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Political and Domestic Pressures
Domestic political dynamics also shape Putin’s calculus. The Russian president faces pressure from hardliners within his administration and the military, who view the war as a test of national strength. Mitrofanova references a 2023 survey by the Levada Center, which found that 68% of Russians supported the “special military operation,” though approval has declined since the war’s early months. “Public opinion is a double-edged sword,” she explains. “While initial support was strong, prolonged conflict and economic strain have created internal tensions.”

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The commentator also highlights the role of Russian state media in shaping narratives. “Propaganda frames the war as a necessary defense of sovereignty, but this messaging struggles to reconcile with the realities of sustained combat and civilian casualties,” Mitrofanova says. She cites a 2024 report by the Russian Academy of Sciences, which noted a growing disconnect between official rhetoric and public sentiment. “The regime’s survival depends on maintaining a narrative of strength, even as the war’s costs mount,” she writes.

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Military and Logistical Challenges
Logistical and military hurdles further complicate Putin’s ability to end the war. Mitrofanova points to Russia’s reliance on conscripted forces and aging equipment, which have struggled against Ukraine’s Western-supplied weapons. According to a 2025 analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia’s military has suffered over 200,000 casualties since 2022, with supply chain issues exacerbating shortages of ammunition and spare parts.

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The commentator also addresses the humanitarian toll, including displacement and infrastructure damage. “Ukraine’s population of 40 million has been deeply affected, with over 10 million displaced domestically or abroad,” she states. This crisis, she argues, limits Russia’s capacity to pursue a “soft” exit strategy without facing international condemnation. “A hasty withdrawal could also trigger a power vacuum, inviting regional instability,” Mitrofanova warns.

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International Reactions and Sanctions
Global responses to the war further constrain Moscow’s options. Western sanctions, imposed since 2022, have crippled Russia’s economy and restricted access to advanced technology. Mitrofanova references a 2025 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report projecting Russia’s GDP to contract by 3.5% annually through 2026. “Economic hardship erodes public confidence and limits the state’s ability to sustain the war effort,” she writes.

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At the same time, Russia’s alliances with countries like China and India provide some relief. Mitrofanova notes that China has increased energy purchases from Russia, offsetting some Western sanctions. However, she argues that these partnerships lack the scale to fully compensate for economic isolation. “Moscow’s long-term strategy hinges on balancing these relationships while avoiding further entrenchment in the conflict,” she says.

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What Comes Next?
The commentary concludes by emphasizing the war’s uncertain trajectory. Mitrofanova suggests that any