Why Russia’s War of Attrition Will Fail

Summary of⁤ Russia’s Weakening Position in ⁣the Ukraine War (as of mid-2025)

This article paints a picture of a Russia increasingly strained ⁢and weakened by its war in ukraine. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:

* Declining Military Incentives⁣ & Manpower Issues: ⁣Financial‍ incentives for soldiers are decreasing in effectiveness, and⁣ the number of desertions has ‍ doubled in 2025 (estimated at 70,000, or 10% of the force). Russia is resorting to coercion, harsh punishments (including torture), and relying on unwilling recruits to maintain troop levels. This unsustainable model is ⁤burning through manpower at a rate Russia’s demographics⁤ can’t support.
*⁢ Escalating Casualties: The death ⁢toll‍ for Russian soldiers is accelerating, with over 100,000 deaths reported in the first half⁢ of 2025 alone.
*⁢ Growing⁤ Dependence on China: russia is becoming ⁢increasingly reliant ‍on China for critical technology imports, while China gains leverage through discounted energy purchases and control of supply chains. ‍This creates a subordinate ⁢relationship for Russia,⁤ a paradox for a leader focused on⁢ sovereignty.
* Economic Strain: International sanctions, falling ‍oil/gas prices, and depletion of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund (down almost 60%) are severely⁣ impacting the ⁣Russian⁤ economy. Maintaining defense spending⁣ will likely require increased borrowing or cuts to social programs, further damaging living standards.
* Exacerbated Pre-War Weaknesses: ⁢The war has intensified russia’s existing problems: underperforming economy, fragile demographics (worsened by⁤ casualties and ⁣emigration), and stifled civic⁣ life.
* Strategic failure: ‍ The invasion failed to achieve its goal ‍of a‍ pliant⁣ Ukraine and has ⁤rather locked Russia⁤ into a costly‍ and prolonged conflict against a resolute enemy.

In essence, ⁢the article argues that⁢ Putin’s war is not only failing strategically but is also actively eroding Russia’s long-term strength and independence.