Why Russia’s War of Attrition Will Fail
- This article paints a picture of a Russia increasingly strained and weakened by its war in ukraine.
- * Declining Military Incentives & Manpower Issues: Financial incentives for soldiers are decreasing in effectiveness, and the number of desertions has doubled in 2025 (estimated at 70,000,...
- In essence, the article argues that Putin's war is not only failing strategically but is also actively eroding Russia's long-term strength and independence.
Summary of Russia’s Weakening Position in the Ukraine War (as of mid-2025)
This article paints a picture of a Russia increasingly strained and weakened by its war in ukraine. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
* Declining Military Incentives & Manpower Issues: Financial incentives for soldiers are decreasing in effectiveness, and the number of desertions has doubled in 2025 (estimated at 70,000, or 10% of the force). Russia is resorting to coercion, harsh punishments (including torture), and relying on unwilling recruits to maintain troop levels. This unsustainable model is burning through manpower at a rate Russia’s demographics can’t support.
* Escalating Casualties: The death toll for Russian soldiers is accelerating, with over 100,000 deaths reported in the first half of 2025 alone.
* Growing Dependence on China: russia is becoming increasingly reliant on China for critical technology imports, while China gains leverage through discounted energy purchases and control of supply chains. This creates a subordinate relationship for Russia, a paradox for a leader focused on sovereignty.
* Economic Strain: International sanctions, falling oil/gas prices, and depletion of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund (down almost 60%) are severely impacting the Russian economy. Maintaining defense spending will likely require increased borrowing or cuts to social programs, further damaging living standards.
* Exacerbated Pre-War Weaknesses: The war has intensified russia’s existing problems: underperforming economy, fragile demographics (worsened by casualties and emigration), and stifled civic life.
* Strategic failure: The invasion failed to achieve its goal of a pliant Ukraine and has rather locked Russia into a costly and prolonged conflict against a resolute enemy.
In essence, the article argues that Putin’s war is not only failing strategically but is also actively eroding Russia’s long-term strength and independence.