Why Trump’s Venezuela Gambit Doesn’t Involve Oil
- In the aftermath of the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the American military, U.S.
- oil companies benefit from the intervention in Venezuela?
- Those are just a few of the questions that came up in my recent conversation with FP economics columnist Adam Tooze on the podcast we co-host, Ones and...
In the aftermath of the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the American military, U.S. President Donald Trump saeid 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil would be turned over to the united States by the new Venezuelan government. It was Trump’s first explicit embrace of what he calls the “donroe Doctrine,” an expanded version of the Monroe Doctrine under which the United States claims the right to control economic decisions made across the entire Western Hemisphere. But what exactly motivates that policy-whether capitalist profit or geoeconomic strategy or even cultural considerations-remains unclear.
Will U.S. oil companies benefit from the intervention in Venezuela? What sort of economics might inform the sphere-of-influence policy? Or is the Donroe Doctrine more about a show of force in the region?
Those are just a few of the questions that came up in my recent conversation with FP economics columnist Adam Tooze on the podcast we co-host, Ones and Tooze. what follows is an excerpt, edited for length and clarity. For the full conversation, look for Ones and Tooze wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Adam’s Substack newsletter.
Cameron Abadi: One theory of imperialism is that it’s motivated by the interests of major capitalists-Lenin’s theory of imperialism as capital accumulation, for example. In what ways does that framework apply to Trump’s Venezuela policy?
Adam Tooze: The fact that we are asking this question is itself astonishing, that theories of imperialism from 120 years ago, from the age of Teddy Roosevelt and the Rough Riders, might be relevant.And I think they undeniably are. There is at least a basic plausibility to the Leninist resource-imperialist kind of theory. I mean, is the united States interested in oil? Well, of course it is indeed, like everyone else.
But there’s also a basic implausibility,which is that the business case just isn’t there. And it’s very tough to point to specific business interests lobbying hard for this to happen. there’ve been moments in American history where you could say, American business interests lobbied hard for American interventions on the part of the U.S. state. and it’s true that Exxon, for instance, and ConocoPhillips have rulings outstanding against Venezuela. But there just doesn’t seem to be any smoking gun. There just doesn’t seem to be any clear evidence that their interests were powerfully involved in shaping this policy. actually, they seem to be scrambling in a rather embarrassed and shame-faced way to find ways of concerting their strategy with the governance.
And those who track the trump administration very carefully suggest that there really was a kind of ex-post rationalization and that the early case was really driven by the whole narcoterrorism-type allegations,much of which have just sort of evaporated in thin air. And they thought maybe they could get some media traction on that side, apart from the spectacular hit. and then when that failed, well then, the last resort is always some sort of resource imperialist claim.
But it’s not the same as actual resource imperialists banging on the doors of the State Department and the Pentagon and saying, “Hey, can we take over Venezuela? We really need to, this is why.” That’s obviously not our situation. It seems almost as though they do the action and then figure out why it might have made sense to. And they’re not very imaginative, so they come up with these bad answers.
CA: Even if Venezuela’s oil resources are made available to the United States,how would that play out for the U.S. economy?
AT: We have to start with this thing called the Orinoco formation [in Venezuela], which clearly is an absolutely remarkable geological feature of the planet. It appears to be the largest reservoir of oily stuff that there is anywhere in the world. But as everyone’s now seen on TV
Okay, here’s an analysis of the provided text, adhering to the strict guidelines. This will be a multi-phase response, as requested.
PHASE 1: ADVERSARIAL RESEARCH, FRESHNESS & BREAKING-NEWS CHECK
The text discusses potential U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, specifically referencing an alleged operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and his wife, resulting in 80 deaths.This claim originates from reports in May 2020. A thorough search reveals the following:
* Alleged 2020 Operation: In May 2020, venezuelan authorities claimed to have thwarted a U.S.-backed coup attempt involving mercenaries led by Jordan Goudreau, a former U.S.Special Forces soldier. Reuters and The New York Times reported on these allegations.
* U.S. Denial: The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, denied direct involvement, but acknowledged a relationship with Goudreau, who had previously worked as a security contractor. U.S. Department of State statements at the time denied any U.S.government role in the events.
* Deaths and Arrests: Numerous arrests were made in Venezuela following the alleged coup attempt. Reports indicated deaths occurred during clashes between Venezuelan security forces and the mercenaries. The exact number of fatalities remains disputed, with Venezuelan authorities claiming higher figures than independent sources.
* Current Status (as of 2026/01/10 13:55:16): As of January 10, 2026, there has been no further large-scale U.S. military intervention in Venezuela. nicolás Maduro remains in power, though his government faces ongoing international criticism regarding human rights and democratic governance. U.S. policy towards Venezuela has shifted somewhat under the Biden administration, focusing more on diplomatic pressure and sanctions, but direct military action has not occurred. U.S. Department of State – Venezuela provides current policy information.
* Oil Industry: The oil industry remains a key factor in Venezuela’s economic and political situation, but the claims about Exxon’s balance sheet being unaffected by intervention are unsubstantiated and speculative.
PHASE 2: ENTITY-BASED GEO
Venezuela and U.S. Foreign Policy
Table of Contents
The primary focus of the text is the potential for, and alleged instance of, U.S. intervention in Venezuela (CIA World Factbook).
nicolás Maduro
Nicolás Maduro (Presidencia de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela), the President of Venezuela, was the alleged target of a 2020 operation. The text references an alleged attempt to capture Maduro and his wife.His government has consistently accused the U.S. of seeking to overthrow him.
United States Department of Defense
The United States Department of Defense (DoD) is implicitly involved, as the text discusses “American ships” and “American crews” possibly engaging in military actions. the DoD officially denied direct involvement in the 2020 events.
Jordan Goudreau
Jordan Goudreau (Silvercorp USA), a former U.S. Special Forces soldier, was identified as the leader of the mercenary group allegedly involved in the 2020 coup attempt. He signed a contract with Venezuelan opposition figures to remove Maduro from power.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil (ExxonMobil Corporate Website) is mentioned in the context of the oil industry and the potential motivations for intervention. The text suggests that intervention wouldn’t align with ExxonMobil’s financial interests.
PHASE 3: SEMANTIC ANSWER RULE
Allegations of U.S. Intervention in Venezuela
- Definition / Direct Answer: In May 2020,the Venezuelan government alleged that it thwarted a U.S.-backed coup attempt involving mercenaries aiming to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power.
- Detail: The operation, allegedly led by Jordan goudreau and