Why We Speak Out (or Don’t): The Science of Self-Censorship
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New research suggests authoritarian regimes don’t necessarily start extreme, but rather gain control through incremental steps, and how public resistance can disrupt this process.
Researchers are increasingly exploring how authoritarian regimes establish and maintain power,moving beyond the assumption that they simply seize control. A recent study, utilizing computational modeling, suggests a more nuanced process: a gradual increase in repression, only possible if the population doesn’t strongly resist each step. The initial question, as posed by one researcher, was “What do you do?” That led them to look more closely at the dynamics. “Maybe authoritarians start out somewhat moderate,” he said. “Maybe the only way they’re allowed to get to that extreme endpoint is through small changes over time.”
This model proposes that authoritarian leaders test the boundaries of public tolerance with small escalations in control. If met with limited resistance, they incrementally increase repression, slowly normalizing increasingly draconian measures.Without consistent pushback, this process can culminate in near-total control.
The Hundred Flowers Campaign: A Historical Example
Daymude points to China’s Hundred Flowers Campaign (1956-1957) as a compelling historical illustration of this dynamic. Initially, Chairman Mao Zedong encouraged citizens to openly criticize the Communist Party, ostensibly to solicit feedback and improve governance. Though, when the critiques became widespread and challenged the Party’s authority, Mao abruptly reversed course, launching a brutal crackdown on dissenters.
The computational model mirrors this historical event, demonstrating how the initial encouragement of dissent can be a tactic to identify and afterward suppress opposition. The model showed that in such a case, dissenters’ self-censorship gradually increased, culminating in near-total compliance over time. This highlights how a seemingly open invitation for feedback can be a prelude to repression.
The Power of Persistent Dissent
However,the model also reveals a critical vulnerability for aspiring authoritarians: sustained public resistance. “The opposite of the Hundred Flowers is if the population is sufficiently bold, this strategy doesn’t work,” said Daymude. ”The authoritarian can’t find the pathway to become fully draconian. People just stubbornly keep dissenting. So every time it tries to ramp up severity, it’s on the hook for it every time as people are still out there, they’re still dissenting. They’re saying, ‘Catch us if you dare.'”
In this scenario, each attempt to increase repression is met with continued opposition, forcing the authoritarian regime to constantly justify it’s actions and potentially eroding its legitimacy. This creates a high-stakes situation where the regime risks further backlash with each escalation.