World Crisis, Tragic Dilemma, Fertilizer CO₂ Issues, and Rising Fuel Costs: Key Global Challenges in Agriculture and Energy

The war in Iran has disrupted fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global food security as agricultural supply chains face mounting pressure from geopolitical instability and climate-related challenges.

According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, fertilizer is not getting through the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to a global food crisis. This disruption comes at a time when American farmers are already grappling with a record-setting drought, with 61% of the continental U.S. Under moderate to exceptional drought conditions, including 97% of the Southeast and two-thirds of the western U.S., according to NOAA.

The combination of drought, war, and tariffs is creating a perfect storm for global agriculture. American farmers entered the spring planting season expecting higher fertilizer and fuel costs, labor shortages, and now face scarce water supplies that are reducing yields and threatening harvests. As David Ortega, an agricultural economist at Michigan State University, told Fortune, “What’s unique about the current moment is that you have this perfect storm of factors.”

Fertilizer markets are closely intertwined with the changing geopolitical landscape, particularly disruptions induced by the war in Ukraine and now the conflict in Iran. The production and use of nitrogen-based fertilizers contribute substantially to global greenhouse gas emissions, even as they remain essential for agricultural production and global food security.

The FAO Chief Economist has warned of severe global food security risks from disruption to the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor, noting that such disruptions are triggering interconnected shocks across energy, fertilizer, and agrifood systems. Meanwhile, rising fuel and fertilizer prices continue to squeeze farmers’ margins, with input costs increasing due to tariff regimes and geopolitical tensions.

In Italy, reports indicate that fertilizer prices stabilized in April after previous increases, but the underlying volatility remains tied to global supply chain fragility. The situation underscores the dangers of agriculture’s dependence on fossil fuels, as petrochemical fertilizer supplies plummet amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

With no immediate resolution to the conflicts affecting key trade routes and persistent drought conditions affecting major agricultural regions, the convergence of geopolitical, environmental, and economic factors poses a sustained threat to global food systems and agricultural livelihoods.