The US dollar has weakened significantly recently, despite the American economy growing faster than those of other developed countries.the dollar has weakened against the euro by almost 20% over the past year. The dollar index is still holding below 100 points and is the weakest since 2022, falling by approximately 12% to a level of 96 points over the past year.
However, on the foreign exchange market, the backward number of GDP often doesn’t matter, but what investors expect next – especially the direction of interest rates, political or geopolitical risks.
The main reason for the weakening is that the market is currently pricing in high political uncertainty in the US into the dollar exchange rate. In such an environment, investors more often diversify their exposure outside of USD assets and seek alternative safe havens. This is also visible in the fact that the US dollar at the beginning of today…
Trump efekt, alebo keď je apetít na slabší dolár
Table of Contents
- Trump efekt, alebo keď je apetít na slabší dolár
- Ako si myslíte, že sa bude dariť americkému doláru?
- Je dolár v ohrození ako svetová mena číslo jeden?
- What is the inflation Reduction Act?
- Key Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act
- Impact on Healthcare
- Impact on Climate Change
- Tax Implications for Corporations
S vývojom dolára súvisí aj samotná politika Donalda Trumpa.Trh má apetít na slabší dolár a vníma ho ako niečo, čo môže administratíve vyhovovať. Slabšia mena totiž podporuje konkurencieschopnosť amerického exportu a pomáha aj firmám s vysokými zahraničnými tržbami. Hoci zároveň zdražuje dovoz a môže pridávať inflačný tlak.
Ako si myslíte, že sa bude dariť americkému doláru?
K vývoju prispeli aj samotné Trumpove vyjadrenia. Tento týždeň povedal, že hodnota dolára je „skvelá”, čo trh vyhodnotil ako signál, že Bielemu domu oslabenie meny zásadne neprekáža. To môže podporovať ďalší predaj dolára. Objavili sa aj výroky v duchu, že dolár vie ísť „hore-dole”, čo trhy čítajú ako ďalší prvok nepredvídateľnosti.
Je dolár v ohrození ako svetová mena číslo jeden?
Oslabenie dolára môže posilniť diverzifikáciu, časť kapitálu odchádza do iných mien či do zlata, ale osobne si nemyslím si, že by dolár reálne prišiel o prvenstvo v dohľadnom čase. Aj dáta IMF COFER ukazujú skôr postupné posuny, nie náhle zo
What is the inflation Reduction Act?
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is a landmark United States federal law that aims to lower healthcare costs, address climate change, and raise taxes on large corporations. President Joe Biden signed the bill into law on August 16, 2022, marking a notable legislative achievement for his administration.
The Act represents a compromise between the initial, more expansive “Build Back Better” plan and the realities of a narrowly divided Congress. It focuses on three key areas: reducing the deficit, lowering prescription drug costs, and investing in clean energy and climate solutions. Unlike its name suggests, most analyses indicate the Act will have a minimal direct impact on reducing inflation in the short term, with its effects primarily felt over the next decade.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Inflation Reduction Act is projected to reduce the federal deficit by $305 billion over the next ten years (2022-2032). source: CBO Report
Key Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act
The inflation Reduction Act contains a wide range of provisions impacting various sectors of the U.S.economy. These provisions are designed to address long-standing policy goals and create new opportunities for investment and innovation.
- Healthcare Costs: Allows Medicare to negotiate prices for certain prescription drugs, capping out-of-pocket prescription costs for Medicare beneficiaries at $2,000 per year, and extends Affordable Care act (ACA) subsidies.
- Climate Change: Provides tax credits and incentives for clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, and electric vehicles, and invests in climate resilience measures.
- Taxation: Imposes a 15% minimum tax on corporations with over $1 billion in profits and increases IRS tax enforcement.
the prescription drug negotiation provision is particularly significant, as it represents the first time Medicare has been authorized to directly negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies. This is expected to lower costs for seniors and reduce government spending. The tax provisions aim to ensure that large,profitable corporations pay their fair share of taxes.
The Act allocates approximately $369 billion to climate and energy programs,representing the largest climate investment in U.S. history. Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Impact on Healthcare
The Inflation Reduction Act significantly alters the landscape of healthcare costs, particularly for Medicare recipients. By allowing medicare to negotiate drug prices, the Act aims to lower the cost of prescription medications for millions of Americans.
Prior to the Act, Medicare was prohibited from negotiating drug prices, leaving it at a disadvantage compared to other countries where such negotiations are common. The new law will initially allow Medicare to negotiate prices for 10 drugs in 2026, increasing to 20 drugs by 2029.Additionally, the Act caps insulin costs at $35 per month for medicare beneficiaries. The extended ACA subsidies will prevent millions from losing health insurance coverage.
The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that the prescription drug provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act will save Medicare approximately $102 billion over ten years. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Impact on Climate Change
The Inflation Reduction act represents the most substantial investment in climate action in U.S. history. It provides a range of tax credits and incentives designed to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy.
These incentives include tax credits for renewable energy production, such as solar and wind power, as well as tax credits for consumers who purchase electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances. The Act also invests in programs to reduce emissions from industrial sources and promote enduring agriculture.Moreover, it provides funding for climate resilience measures to help communities adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Analysis by Princeton University’s Zero-carbon Analysis for 2x Warming (ZCA2W) initiative suggests the Act could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. Source: Princeton University ZCA2W
Tax Implications for Corporations
The Inflation Reduction Act introduces new tax provisions aimed at increasing revenue from large corporations and ensuring thay pay a minimum level of tax. These provisions are expected to generate significant revenue to help offset the costs of the Act’s other programs.
The centerpiece of the corporate tax changes is a 15% minimum tax on corporations with over $1 billion in profits. This tax applies to book income, which is the income reported to investors, rather than taxable income, which can be reduced through various deductions and credits. The Act also increases funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to improve tax enforcement and reduce tax evasion.
The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the 15% corporate minimum tax will generate approximately $252 billion in revenue over ten years. Source: Joint Committee on Taxation
