Xi Jinping: Understanding China’s Leader | The Cipher Brief
The Growing Concerns of the Sino-Russian Partnership and the CIA‘s Focus on China
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The deepening relationship between China and Russia, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine, is raising critically important concerns within the U.S. intelligence community. Former Deputy Director of the CIA, Michael Morell, recently discussed the evolving dynamics of this partnership and the agency’s strategic shift towards prioritizing intelligence gathering on China.
The “Friendship Without Limits” and its Implications
The declared “friendship without limits” between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin is a cause for worry, Morell explained. While questioning the true depth of trust between dictators, he highlighted the potential for material support from China to Russia, including potentially lethal aid.”It does concern me, yes,” Morell stated. “It is concerning and it is diffrent now that they claim they have this friendship without limits.But does any dictator really have a friend? Somebody they totally trust that they’ll tell everything and vice versa?”
However, Morell also pointed out the economic considerations that constrain Xi Jinping.A widespread international boycott of China in response to supporting Russia could trigger a significant economic downturn within China, forcing Xi to carefully weigh the risks and benefits of escalating support for Putin. “Xi also has to think about what kind of economic downturn is going to happen inside China if every country that sides with Ukraine – which is a lot of democracies around the world – says, ‘you know, we’re going to start boycotting China’,” he noted.This economic pressure represents a potential check on the extent of chinese support for Russia.
The CIA’s Strategic Pivot: Establishing the China Mission Center
Recognizing the growing strategic importance of China, the CIA established the China Mission Center during Morell’s tenure as Deputy Director. this initiative, unprecedented in its structure, signaled a fundamental shift in the agency’s priorities.
“I was on my second tour in Israel when than-director [William] Burns came for a visit… he mentioned that he had been talking with a China specialist at the agency and some others and said, ‘You know, I’m thinking we’re not paying enough attention to China as the real strategic threat and even maybe a tactical one’,” Morell recounted.
The creation of the china Mission Center involved a thorough restructuring of the agency’s resources and approach to intelligence gathering. It was designed to own all China-related intelligence “property,” encompassing both the China and Taiwan departments. Beyond simply issuing requirements to existing field stations,the Center focused on improving the way intelligence was collected.
Implementing a New Intelligence Gathering Approach
To enhance effectiveness, the China Mission Center implemented several key changes. One significant innovation was the creation of STED – the Strategic Training and Education Department.
“We started what we call STED, which is the Strategic Training and Education Department, which is kind of like TED talks, and they actually do a STED talk,” Morell explained. “And they’re the ones that went out to every single mission center chief and built modules that really helped.”
this initiative aimed to disseminate best practices and new methodologies across the entire intelligence community,fostering a more unified and effective approach to understanding and countering Chinese influence.The goal was to move beyond traditional intelligence operations and embrace innovative strategies for gathering and analyzing facts.
The establishment of the China Mission Center and the implementation of STED demonstrate a proactive and strategic response to the evolving geopolitical landscape, recognizing China as a paramount intelligence target. This shift underscores the importance of robust intelligence gathering and analysis in navigating the complex challenges posed by a rising China.
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