Yemen Conflict: Saudi-Emirati Split and the Houthi Escalation

Houthi forces launched a ballistic missile attack on Saudi Arabia on July 13, 2026, followed by drone strikes on oil facilities and efforts to restrict shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This escalation follows a period of relative cooling and secret talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, who control the capital city of Sana’a, according to analysis from the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP).

Saudi Strategy and the UAE Withdrawal

The current security environment in Yemen was shifted by the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the civil war after more than 10 years of involvement. According to analyst Susanne Dahlgren, the UAE’s departure followed a December 2025 skirmish in the Hadhramaut region. During that conflict, the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council briefly expelled Saudi and Saudi-backed militias before retreating under Saudi counteroffensives.

Since December 2025, Saudi Arabia has pursued a dual-track strategy to manage the conflict from Riyadh. This approach involves consolidating influence over various power-seeking groups in the former South Yemen while simultaneously engaging in secret negotiations with the Houthis. Dahlgren states these maneuvers are intended to protect Saudi interests regarding oil production and shipping lanes.

Houthi Escalation and Regional Impact

The July 13, 2026, ballistic missile attack signals a reversal of the apparent cooling of hostilities. The Houthis have expanded their operations to include drone attacks targeting oil infrastructure and attempts to limit maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical chokepoint for global trade.

The resumption of active hostilities occurs as Yemenis face an extraordinary food insecurity crisis. According to MERIP executive director James Ryan and Susanne Dahlgren, the lack of a political path forward for the conflict continues to exacerbate the humanitarian situation for the civilian population.

Political Outlook for the Conflict

Analysis of the current state of the war suggests that the Saudi attempt to establish a modus operandi for managing the conflict has been challenged by the Houthi offensive. The shift from secret talks to missile and drone attacks indicates a breakdown in the diplomatic efforts intended to secure Saudi shipping and energy interests.

The conflict remains without a viable political resolution, leaving the territory of the former South Yemen and the Houthi-controlled north in a state of volatile instability.