Yemen’s Future Shaping Up as Saudi Arabia Consolidates Influence

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The political landscape of Yemen is undergoing significant shifts following the withdrawal of Emirati-backed militias, according to a new analysis by Yemen expert Susanne Dahlgren, published by the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP). The report, “Yemen After the Saudi-Emirati Split,” highlights how Saudi Arabia’s growing influence in southern Yemen has reshaped regional dynamics, potentially sidelining broader efforts toward national unity. Dahlgren’s assessment comes as the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a semi-autonomous entity backed by the United Arab Emirates, has scaled back its operations in the south after Emirati forces withdrew in 2023. This shift has allowed Saudi Arabia to consolidate control over areas outside Houthi-held regions, according to the analysis. “Saudi Arabia’s focus has shifted from direct confrontation with the Houthis to stabilizing its influence in the south,” Dahlgren wrote, noting that this strategy may reflect a tacit understanding between Riyadh and the Houthis to manage a fragmented Yemen. By prioritizing stability in southern Yemen, Saudi Arabia may be seeking to secure its strategic interests in the region, even as the conflict remains unresolved. “This approach risks entrenching divisions that could undermine the aspirations of Yemenis for a unified, independent state,” Dahlgren stated. The report also examines the role of the internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which has struggled to assert authority over southern regions. MERIP’s publication of Dahlgren’s work follows a series of reports highlighting the evolving nature of the conflict. “Yemen is at a crossroads,” Dahlgren wrote. Source
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According to Susanne Dahlgren, “Saudi Arabia’s focus has shifted from direct confrontation with the Houthis to stabilizing its influence in the south.”
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Dahlgren wrote, “This approach risks entrenching divisions that could undermine the aspirations of Yemenis for a unified, independent state.”
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“Yemen is at a crossroads,” Dahlgren wrote. “The path chosen by regional powers will determine whether the country moves toward stability or further fragmentation.”
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A statement from the Yemen Peace Forum said, “The international community must recognize that Yemen’s future cannot be dictated by external interests.”
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