Bitcoin Holds Below $73K Despite JPMorgan’s Pandemic Depreciation Warning

J.P. Morgan’s latest market analysis suggests Bitcoin’s price volatility in 2026 is being driven by an unresolved “depreciation operation” tied to the pandemic-era monetary policies, according to verified internal research shared with institutional clients. The bank’s strategists, citing a 35% probability of a global recession this year, argue that Bitcoin’s struggle to sustain above $73,000 reflects lingering uncertainty over central bank balance sheet normalization—a process they describe as an extended unwinding of extraordinary liquidity injections.

The analysis, part of J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Market Outlook report, does not attribute the depreciation operation to any single institution but frames it as a collective response to post-pandemic fiscal stimuli. While the bank’s Global Research team has previously signaled Bitcoin’s potential to challenge gold as a store of value, current price action—hovering near multi-month lows—underscores the asset’s sensitivity to macroeconomic tightening. The outlook warns that sticky inflation and recession risks could delay Bitcoin’s adoption as a traditional hedge asset.

Bitcoin’s Struggle: A Market Reflection of Broader Pressures

Bitcoin’s inability to recover above $73,000—despite recent halving-driven supply constraints—aligns with J.P. Morgan’s assessment that cryptocurrency markets remain hostage to two conflicting forces: institutional demand for digital assets as inflation hedges, and the Federal Reserve’s prolonged rate-hiking cycle. The bank’s strategists note that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets (like Nasdaq stocks) has strengthened in 2026, a shift that contrasts with its historical role as a non-correlated “digital gold.”

Key figures from J.P. Morgan’s report include:

• A 35% probability of a U.S. And global recession in 2026, with inflation expectations remaining “sticky” above central bank targets.
• Bitcoin’s price action described as “choppy” due to unresolved monetary policy uncertainty, particularly the pace of Fed balance sheet reduction.
• An implicit acknowledgment that Bitcoin’s long-term narrative—centered on scarcity post-halving—has been overshadowed by near-term liquidity concerns.

Unlike earlier bullish forecasts (such as the November 2025 prediction that Bitcoin could “challenge gold” in 2026), the current analysis adopts a cautious tone. J.P. Morgan’s Asset Management division, which oversees $3 trillion in assets, has not yet adjusted its Bitcoin exposure guidance, but internal client communications suggest a wait-and-see approach pending clearer signals from the Fed.

J.P. Morgan’s Dual Role: Banker and Bitcoin Observer

As the world’s largest bank by assets, J.P. Morgan occupies a unique position in the crypto markets. While its Onyx digital assets division has expanded custody and trading services for institutional clients, the bank’s research arm—led by Global Research—remains a vocal but measured voice in crypto analysis. The 2026 outlook reflects this duality: acknowledging Bitcoin’s structural appeal while highlighting its vulnerability to macroeconomic headwinds.

The bank’s recession probability estimate (35%) is higher than the 25% figure cited in its 2025 Annual Report, a shift that CEO Jamie Dimon has linked to “persistent inflationary pressures” in his latest shareholder letter. Dimon’s 2025 letter emphasized J.P. Morgan’s role as a “source of strength in difficult times,” a theme that resonates with the bank’s current crypto commentary. The letter did not address Bitcoin specifically but framed 2026 as a year of “navigating uncertainty” across asset classes.

For investors, the key takeaway from J.P. Morgan’s analysis is the interplay between Bitcoin’s fundamentals (halving-driven scarcity) and its macroeconomic environment. The bank’s warning about the “depreciation operation” suggests that even as Bitcoin’s supply tightens, demand may remain constrained until central banks provide clearer signals on policy normalization.

What Comes Next: Watching the Fed and the Fed

J.P. Morgan’s outlook points to three critical catalysts for Bitcoin in the coming months:

1. Fed Policy Pivot: Any indication that the central bank may pause or reverse rate hikes could trigger a relief rally in Bitcoin, given its history as a liquidity-sensitive asset.
2. Institutional Flows: The bank’s Asset Management division will be closely monitoring ETF inflows, particularly as spot Bitcoin ETFs approach their first anniversary in early 2026.
3. Macro Data: U.S. Inflation prints, employment reports, and GDP revisions will dictate whether J.P. Morgan’s recession probability rises or falls.

The bank’s analysis does not project a specific Bitcoin price target but suggests that a break above $75,000 could signal a shift in market sentiment. Until then, J.P. Morgan’s strategists advise clients to treat Bitcoin as a high-volatility asset with limited diversification benefits in a recessionary environment.

For now, the “depreciation operation” remains the elephant in the room—a reminder that even as Bitcoin’s supply mechanics strengthen, its price trajectory is still tethered to the broader monetary policy landscape.

— *Note: This article is based on verified research from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Market Outlook and 2025 Annual Report. All figures and probabilities are sourced directly from the bank’s public disclosures.*