KasmaruYeah, I’m Kasumamaru. Last week’s mile championship was the first time in a long time for the banyan tree to win three consecutive ▲ ◎ 〇. This week is the last race of the undefeated Triple Crown Horse Contrail, Japan Cup (November 28, 2021, Tokyo Racecourse, 2400m turf). Four derby horses will participate in the race, and leading horses will appear from overseas, so it is quite difficult to predict. It’s quick, but my grandfather’s favorite ◎ is this year’s derby horse, Shahryar Kyasuu. It is read that the Contrail that lost to the 3-year-old horse in the fall of the Emperor’s Award will lose to the 3-year-old horse this time as well.
The “3 year old” wall that stands against the contrail
Banyan grandfatherThe course is exactly the same as the derby, so the main idea is to choose from the horses that have won the derby. The only advantage of Shahryar over other derby horses is the weight (bearing weight). Winning a race called Derby, which can only be challenged once in a lifetime, is a champion of the same generation, so all of your strengths should be hard to beat. The difference is that the weight given only to 3-year-old horses is light. That’s it. Typical is when Gentildonna, nine years ago, beat that Orpheble, who had a record of second place for two consecutive years at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Gentil, a 3-year-old mare, weighs 53 kg, and Orpheble weighs 57 kg. In the last straight line, the two horses got out of the lead and got to the goal in a close match race, which was a close victory. Since Gentil started to hit Orfable at the straight entrance, there were some voices saying that it was a foul, but in the end the ruling was settled without any problems. The decisive battle between top-notch horses like this is just a small thing, at this time it’s a difference in weight. By the way, Shahryar has a strong leg that I showed in Derby. The previous run, Kobe Shimbun Hai (GII, Chukyo 2200m), couldn’t grow due to bad rain, so I dropped the stock by removing the 4th place and the betting ticket area (within 3rd place), but that is Contrail (2020). The triple crown horse including the derby of the year) is also similar because it lost at the Osaka Cup, which was a bad riding ground this spring. Anyway, the weight of 55 kg of Shahryar should be really advantageous. The winning derby was carrying 57 kg. Contrail and other derby horses, Wagnerian (19 year derby horse), Makahiki (16 year derby horse) are 57 kg, so if you reproduce the running of derby, it will be an easy victory. Yuichi Fukunaga switches to Yuga Kawada to ride the contrail, but once he became a derby jockey in Makahiki, he won the US GI medal at the Breeders’ Cup (BC) during this time. I just got it, so it shouldn’t be a problem at all.
KasmaruWell, Shahryar is definitely one of the leading candidates. Kasyo’s favorite ◎ aiming for a hole is a foreign horse Broome. Since Alkaased (UK) won in 2005, there has been no foreign horse victory for 15 years. This horse has a great track record, but I don’t know if it fits Japanese turf.
KasyoWell, that’s where you should look. The Tokyo Racecourse has been held since the beginning of October, and I started using the C course last week. Looking at last week’s race, it’s better to take the lead, as the leading horse tends to win above 2200 meters. Well, this area is always said in both the Derby and the Japan Cup. Almond Eye, who won last year, was one of the first to break out of the lead, followed by undefeated Triple Crown horses such as Contrail, but they weren’t caught. It’s a similar trend this year. That’s why it’s grass, but the question is how light it is. It was really light turf at the Japan Cup three years ago when Almond Eye set a world record, but as far as I can see last week’s race, it’s not that much. That’s why I think there is a chance that foreign horses, who are good at heavy turf, can also take advantage of it. Well, it’s Bloom, but this horse ran well in second place at the BC Turf in the United States the other day. It was said that the Del Mar Racetrack on the west coast of the United States, which was the stage, was closer to Japanese turf, which tends to have a faster clock than heavy turf like Europe. In other words, it is thought that Japan’s high-speed riding ground was also in sight because it was able to respond to the riding ground where speed is required. My father, Australia, was Galileo, who was said to be the strongest horse in Europe, and my mother, Ouija Board, was the third horse to finish at the 2006 Japan Cup when Deep Impact won. So I think it’s pedigree-friendly. I forgot to talk about leg quality, but I won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (France), which won the GI for the first time. BC Turf has legs that you can freely insert from the middle team, so it’s okay.
KasmaruHmmm, if you read it, it’s pretty interesting. However, foreign horses that haven’t won for 15 years can’t be trusted. The old man’s opposition 〇 is the Contrail that finally came out. I was afraid of the Emperor’s Award in the fall, but what is the reason why I can’t win again?
Banyan grandfatherNeedless to say, Contrail is an undefeated Triple Crown horse. It can be said that it is the “strongest child” left by Deep Impact. Since his debut, 10 races, 7 wins, 2nd place, 2nd place, 3rd place and 1st place are inferior to his father who had 14 races and 12 wins, but they are all within the range of betting tickets. Most of the races I ran are GI. However, I’m worried that I haven’t won since I became an old horse (4 years old or older). Certainly there were some bad conditions such as bad riding, but it is a fact that there is no victory. I’m worried that I’ve been away from victory for three consecutive races since last year’s Japan Cup (winning Almond Eye), which I missed the first place. I thought I should be able to win the Emperor’s Award in the previous race, Autumn, but I’m worried that I couldn’t catch Efforia and ended up. The saddle is the main battle, Yuichi Fukunaga jockey. This time it’s a retirement race. There is also the strength of luck to draw the 1st frame 2nd at 2400 meters in Tokyo, which is advantageous for the inner frame. Of course, it’s a fan’s dream to win easily, and I don’t think it’s strange, but at the same time, there is a concern that the possibility of being scooped up by a “strong 3-year-old horse” is not small. Then, in such a case, it’s up to the opposition.
KasmaruHmmm, isn’t the strongest active horse the strongest horse? I’m not sure. Kasyo’s opposition is Uberleben, which is also aimed at holes. I don’t know if it will work like Gentildonna in my grandfather’s story.
KasyoSpeaking of weight, this is also advantageous. After all, it’s 53 kg. After winning the Oaks, there was a slight inflammation in the flexor tendon of the left front leg, and I lost the Shuka Sho in the previous race to 13th place, but I looked ahead to the Japan Cup, which is my specialty at the Tokyo course. It could have been a slap. The symptoms seem to have improved, and this time it’s a strength that we can expect to increase. Over the past 10 years, 3-year-old mares have performed well in the Japan Cup with 1st and 2nd (Almond Eye, Gentildonna), 2nd and 2nd (Curren Bouquetd’or, Denim and Ruby), and 3rd and 1st (Daring Tact). Continue. Even if it’s a mare, it will hurt if you disregard it.
KasmaruWhether or not you are well prepared, including your physical condition, is the key. By the way, I don’t have the image that the Japan Cup will be so rough, but what should I do this time?
KasyoFor me, who is aiming for a hole, I will give you another foreign horse. It’s Japan. A. Another thug sent by O’Brien Stables (Ireland) with Bloom. The Grand Prix de Paris and the International Stakes GI 2 wins are sufficient. The BC Turf in the previous race was able to handle the 4th place and the fast-paced Baba as well as Bloom. Yutaka-chan (Taketoyo jockey) is on the saddle, and there is a possibility that he will rewind at the wide Tokyo Racecourse, which has a long straight line. Next is another mare, Shadow Diva. The long-awaited first victory of the heavy prize in the Fuchu Himba Stakes of the previous run is now in great shape. After passing the Queen Elizabeth Cup, she announced her participation in the Japan Cup, which is held on the Tokyo course, where she is good at. I’m looking forward to one Heart’s Cry production piece that is expected to grow in the fall of 5 years old. The last is Wagnerian, a derby horse. I’ve been completely away from the winning stars lately, but the year before last I’ve shown my strength in this race with 3rd place. If the sense of speed is restored by spending miles for the first time in the previous run, it is possible that the betting ticket is sufficient in terms of strength.
Banyan grandfatherFirst of all, I will raise a foreign horse. The last one that Kasyo didn’t give, Grand Glory in France. The Japan Cup should be careful of the less popular foreign horses. Seishun Shimizu, the late horse-race critic known for “loneliness ◎ (double circle),” also said: This horse is not very popular among the three horses this year. Looking at the races overseas, it seems that this horse has a heavier riding condition (rainy weather, etc., which contains a lot of water), but the more you follow from behind, the more durable your legs will grow. Is perfect for the long straight line in Tokyo. Although it is a mare, it also has power. In August, he won the Prix Jean Romanet (GI, 2000 meters in France) by driving in from behind. It’s worth considering that the second place was the winner of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mary Turf (GI, 2200m, USA, the race that Loves Only You won this year). In the previous run, the October Opera Award (GI, 2000 meters in France) also stretched out from the middle team and took a good run with 2nd place. The condition is improving, and pay attention to the fact that the counterclockwise direction is 5 races and 3 wins, 2 finishes and 2 times. Next is miracle. Many people remember the 18th Japan Cup. It’s a showdown with that almond eye. He daringly escaped from the start and tried hard to finish second in the winning Almond Eye. In the previous race, the Kyoto Grand Prize (GII, Hanshin 2400m), when I went around the 4th corner in 3rd place, I just stepped on to 3rd place (1st place was Makahiki). This year’s 7-year-old horse may have lost the power of yesteryear, but if you are addicted to the tactics of running away and sticking, it should be interesting this time without almond eyes. I’m looking forward to the drastic riding of the veteran Ryuji Wada jockey on the saddle. The last is authority. The 3-year-old classic (Satsuki Sho, Japan Derby, Kikuka Sho) had no connection, but since he was 2 years old, his ability has been highly evaluated. He won the Arima Republica Cup (GII, Tokyo 2500m) last year and challenged the Arima Kinen (GI, Nakayama 2500m), but lost 14th. Even so, he proved to be suitable for long distances, such as finishing second at this year’s Diamond Stakes (GIII, Tokyo 3400m). The Tokyo course is 3 wins, 2 finishes and 1 time, which is a good match for this horse. The previous run of the Argentine Republic Cup was the end of the holidays since the Emperor’s Award, Spring, but it’s a consecutive victory. The saddle is top jockey, Christophe Lemaire jockey. This is where I want you to aim at one shot with your legs that are boldly ahead and sticky.
KasmaruHmmm, there are various things. However, the Tokyo Racecourse will be sunny and the turf will be lighter, and the strongest active horse Contrail is the favorite because it shows its true strength.